ScoreProb
Premier League England Round 10 2026

Arsenal vs Hull City

Arsenal Home · Elo 1,731
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hull City Away · Elo 1,566
Emirates Stadium, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arsenal win
Arsenal winPick
59.4%
Draw
27.8%
Hull City win
12.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.8%
No51.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Arsenal history97 matches
Hull City history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Arsenal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arsenal are rated 166 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,731 against 1,566. On rating alone Arsenal would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Arsenal score more

    1.92 goals a game over 97 matches for Arsenal, against 1.28 over 79 for Hull City.

  • Arsenal concede fewer

    Arsenal concede 0.82 a game, Hull City 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Arsenal matches, against 47% for Hull City. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arsenal
Hull City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1731.1
ELO
1565.5
97
ELO · Matches
79
1731.1
Current Team ELO
1565.5
1565.5
Current Opponent ELO
1731.1
165.5
Current ELO Difference
-165.5
0.72
Expected score
0.28
97
History Matches
79
0.12
Residual Mean
0.04
60.22
Overperformance
53.00
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.90
1.90
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
97
Matches
79
2.09
PPG
1.53
62.9%
Win rate
41.8%
20.6%
Draw rate
27.8%
16.5%
Loss rate
30.4%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
52
Matches
41
2.12
PPG
1.51
65.4%
Win rate
41.5%
15.4%
Draw rate
26.8%
19.2%
Loss rate
31.7%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.7%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
46.3%
28.8%
Over 3.5 rate
19.5%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
52
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.28
89.7%
Scoring rate
74.7%
50.5%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.32
88.5%
Scoring rate
80.5%
42.3%
BTTS rate
53.7%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
97
History Matches
79
1.92
Goals Mean
1.28
1.31
Goals Std
1.01
89.7%
Scored 1+ rate
74.7%
56.7%
Scored 2+ rate
39.2%
27.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.82
Goals against per game
1.19
56.7%
Conceding rate
69.6%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.17
50.0%
Conceding rate
70.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
97
History Matches
79
0.82
Conceded Mean
1.19
0.86
Conceded Std
1.08
21.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.9%
4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
97
History Matches
79
0.83
Result entropy
0.99
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.41
16.76
Stability score
1.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
97
Eligible Matches
79
48
Lead Matches
23
85.4%
Lead Win Rate
69.6%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.77
15
Trailing Matches
12
33.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
97
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
70
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
12
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
13
Competition Season Count
8
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.13
Portability PPG Range
1.16
57.42
Portability Score
54.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
97
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO165.5
PPG0.56
GF0.64
GA-0.37
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches18
Goals Mean0.64
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate15.0%
Scored 2+ rate17.5%
Scored 3+ rate15.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches18
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches18
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score15.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches25
Lead Win Rate15.9%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.02
Portability Score2.77
Rest days3.99
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches8
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.39
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.92
Current Team ELO165.5
Current Opponent ELO-165.5
Current ELO Difference331.0
Expected score0.44
History Matches18
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arsenal

W
Liverpool0–1Arsenal1 Nov · away
Pick: Arsenal 49% · hit
W
Arsenal2–0Everton24 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal 57% · hit
D
Bayern München2–2Arsenal21 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal 38% · missed
W
Nottingham Forest0–1Arsenal18 Oct · away
Pick: Arsenal 54% · hit
W
Arsenal3–0Lille13 Oct · home
Pick: Arsenal 58% · hit

Hull City

D
Hull City2–2Ipswich31 Oct · home
Pick: Hull City 47% · missed
D
Hull City1–1Brentford25 Oct · home
Pick: Hull City 37% · missed
L
Fulham1–0Hull City17 Oct · away
Pick: Hull City 44% · missed
W
Coventry0–1Hull City29 Aug · away
Pick: Coventry 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Arsenal and Hull City meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Emirates Stadium, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Arsenal win 59.4%, draw 27.8%, Hull City win 12.8%. The pick is Arsenal win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.