ScoreProb
Premier League England Round 10 2026

Fulham vs Newcastle

Fulham Home · Elo 1,547
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Newcastle Away · Elo 1,546
Craven Cottage, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Newcastle win
Fulham win
31.0%
Draw
27.7%
Newcastle winPick
41.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%

How much we know

Fulham history72 matches
Newcastle history90 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Newcastle are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,547 against 1,546. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Newcastle score more

    1.29 goals a game over 72 matches for Fulham, against 1.66 over 90 for Newcastle.

  • Fulham concede fewer

    Fulham concede 1.33 a game, Newcastle 1.51.

  • Newcastle games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Fulham matches, against 66% for Newcastle. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fulham
Newcastle
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1547.3
ELO
1545.7
72
ELO · Matches
90
1547.3
Current Team ELO
1545.7
1545.7
Current Opponent ELO
1547.3
1.64
Current ELO Difference
-1.64
0.50
Expected score
0.50
72
History Matches
90
0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
52.87
Overperformance
52.79
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
90
1.44
PPG
1.43
43.1%
Win rate
41.1%
15.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
41.7%
Loss rate
38.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.6%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
41
1.68
PPG
1.10
54.1%
Win rate
29.3%
5.4%
Draw rate
22.0%
40.5%
Loss rate
48.8%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
61.0%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
37
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.66
75.0%
Scoring rate
82.2%
58.3%
BTTS rate
64.4%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.32
78.4%
Scoring rate
70.7%
48.6%
BTTS rate
61.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
90
1.29
Goals Mean
1.66
1.02
Goals Std
1.26
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.2%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
13.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.51
80.6%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.71
70.3%
Conceding rate
80.5%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
72
History Matches
90
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.00
Conceded Std
1.27
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.9%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.5%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.5%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
90
0.92
Result entropy
0.96
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.93
7.64
Stability score
4.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
90
17
Lead Matches
35
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
74.3%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.77
24
Trailing Matches
26
37.5%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
29.2%
Trailing Win Rate
11.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
90
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.83
Rest days
75.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
13
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.85
43
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.45
0.69
Portability PPG Range
1.40
66.50
Portability Score
52.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
90
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO1.64
PPG0.01
GF-0.36
GA-0.18
PPG-1.00
PPG0.58
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate7.2%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-18
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score3.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches-18
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate2.2%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate14.4%
Trailing Win Rate17.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.71
Portability Score13.82
Rest days-1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.82
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO1.64
Current Opponent ELO-1.64
Current ELO Difference3.27
Expected score0.00
History Matches-18
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Fulham

D
Aston Villa1–1Fulham31 Oct · away
Pick: Aston Villa 41% · missed
L
Fulham0–1Crystal Palace28 Oct · home
Pick: Crystal Palace 44% · hit
W
Coventry0–1Fulham24 Oct · away
Pick: Coventry 40% · missed
W
Fulham1–0Hull City17 Oct · home
Pick: Hull City 44% · missed
L
Sunderland1–0Fulham30 Aug · away
Pick: Sunderland 48% · hit

Newcastle

L
Newcastle0–1Everton2 Nov · home
Pick: Newcastle 44% · missed
L
Everton3–1Newcastle29 Oct · away
Pick: Newcastle 43% · missed
W
Crystal Palace0–2Newcastle25 Oct · away
Pick: Newcastle 39% · hit
L
Newcastle0–1Aston Villa17 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle 50% · missed
L
Coventry4–1Newcastle12 Oct · away
Pick: Newcastle 47% · missed

About this match

Fulham and Newcastle meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Craven Cottage, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Fulham win 31.0%, draw 27.7%, Newcastle win 41.3%. The pick is Newcastle win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.