ScoreProb
Premier League England Round 10 2026

Brighton vs Brentford

Brighton Home · Elo 1,603
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Brentford Away · Elo 1,615
Amex Stadium, Brighton Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brighton win
Brighton winPick
46.9%
Draw
26.7%
Brentford win
26.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.0%
Under 2.546.0%

How much we know

Brighton history68 matches
Brentford history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Brighton are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,603 against 1,615. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.74 goals a game over 68 matches for Brighton, against 1.74 over 68 for Brentford.

  • Defences are close

    Brighton concede 1.28 a game, Brentford 1.19.

  • Brighton games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Brighton matches, against 50% for Brentford. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brighton
Brentford
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1602.7
ELO
1615.0
68
ELO · Matches
68
1602.7
Current Team ELO
1615.0
1615.0
Current Opponent ELO
1602.7
-12.32
Current ELO Difference
12.32
0.48
Expected score
0.52
68
History Matches
68
0.08
Residual Mean
0.07
55.83
Overperformance
55.73
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
2.40
Goals for per game
4.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.80
2.10
Goals for per game
2.70
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.28
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
68
1.66
PPG
1.65
47.1%
Win rate
45.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
27.9%
27.9%
Loss rate
26.5%
86.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
60.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
38
2.03
PPG
1.68
58.8%
Win rate
50.0%
26.5%
Draw rate
18.4%
14.7%
Loss rate
31.6%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
34
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.74
Goals for per game
1.74
79.4%
Scoring rate
76.5%
52.9%
BTTS rate
51.5%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.61
82.4%
Scoring rate
78.9%
55.9%
BTTS rate
47.4%
4.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
68
History Matches
68
1.74
Goals Mean
1.74
1.35
Goals Std
1.56
79.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
57.4%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
22.1%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.19
69.1%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.18
67.6%
Conceding rate
63.2%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
68
History Matches
68
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.29
Conceded Std
0.99
35.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.6%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
68
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.89
3.74
Stability score
2.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
68
24
Lead Matches
30
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.84
20
Trailing Matches
17
50.0%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
74.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.17
37
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
28
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.31
1.61
Portability PPG Range
0.94
49.02
Portability Score
62.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-12.32
PPG0.01
GF0.00
GA0.09
PPG0.00
PPG0.35
PPG-0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate2.9%
Scored 2+ rate10.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.84
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score0.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.58
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate26.5%
Trailing Win Rate19.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.67
Portability Score-12.99
Rest days2.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO-12.32
Current Opponent ELO12.32
Current ELO Difference-24.64
Expected score-0.04
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brighton

W
Manchester City0–1Brighton31 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester City 40% · missed
L
Liverpool2–0Brighton25 Oct · away
Pick: Liverpool 44% · hit
D
FK Jablonec0–0Brighton22 Oct · away
Pick: FK Jablonec 51% · missed
W
Brighton5–0Crystal Palace18 Oct · home
Pick: Brighton 49% · hit
W
Brighton4–0Kauno Žalgiris15 Oct · home
Pick: Kauno Žalgiris 49% · missed

Brentford

W
Brentford2–0Nottingham Forest31 Oct · home
Pick: Brentford 55% · hit
L
Sunderland3–2Brentford28 Oct · away
Pick: Sunderland 52% · hit
D
Hull City1–1Brentford25 Oct · away
Pick: Hull City 37% · missed
L
Brentford1–2Liverpool17 Oct · home
Pick: Brentford 54% · missed
D
Leeds1–1Brentford30 Aug · away
Pick: Leeds 39% · missed

About this match

Brighton and Brentford meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Amex Stadium, Brighton. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Brighton win 46.9%, draw 26.7%, Brentford win 26.4%. The pick is Brighton win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.0%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.