ScoreProb
Premier League England Round 10 2026

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

Crystal Palace Home · Elo 1,581
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Liverpool Away · Elo 1,586
Selhurst Park, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Liverpool win
Crystal Palace win
31.7%
Draw
28.3%
Liverpool winPick
40.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%

How much we know

Crystal Palace history88 matches
Liverpool history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (40.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Liverpool are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,581 against 1,586. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Liverpool score more

    1.43 goals a game over 88 matches for Crystal Palace, against 1.80 over 87 for Liverpool.

  • Crystal Palace concede fewer

    Crystal Palace concede 1.18 a game, Liverpool 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Crystal Palace matches, against 63% for Liverpool. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Crystal Palace
Liverpool
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1581.0
ELO
1586.4
88
ELO · Matches
87
1581.0
Current Team ELO
1586.4
1586.4
Current Opponent ELO
1581.0
-5.46
Current ELO Difference
5.46
0.49
Expected score
0.51
88
History Matches
87
0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
53.53
Overperformance
54.39
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
87
1.55
PPG
1.63
42.0%
Win rate
48.3%
28.4%
Draw rate
18.4%
29.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.5%
55.7%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
41
1.67
PPG
1.34
44.2%
Win rate
39.0%
34.9%
Draw rate
17.1%
20.9%
Loss rate
43.9%
67.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.9%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
46.3%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
43
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.80
77.3%
Scoring rate
85.1%
52.3%
BTTS rate
59.8%
1.51
Goals for per game
1.59
76.7%
Scoring rate
82.9%
55.8%
BTTS rate
58.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
88
History Matches
87
1.43
Goals Mean
1.80
1.13
Goals Std
1.31
77.3%
Scored 1+ rate
85.1%
43.2%
Scored 2+ rate
56.3%
18.2%
Scored 3+ rate
21.8%
1.51
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.39
64.8%
Conceding rate
71.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.59
62.8%
Conceding rate
73.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
88
History Matches
87
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.18
Conceded Std
1.20
34.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.5%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.7%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
37.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.7%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
37.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
35.2%
Clean-sheet rate
28.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
87
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.84
1.51
Stability score
6.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
87
Eligible Matches
87
35
Lead Matches
33
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
78.8%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.83
19
Trailing Matches
24
26.3%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
87
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
20
Short Rest History Matches
14
1.05
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.86
49
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
18
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
11
Competition Season Count
13
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.82
Portability PPG Range
1.25
46.64
Portability Score
55.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-5.46
PPG-0.09
GF-0.37
GA-0.21
PPG-1.00
PPG0.33
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.2%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.56
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches1
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-4.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.10
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate5.5%
Trailing Win Rate1.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.57
Portability Score-9.19
Rest days1.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO-5.46
Current Opponent ELO5.46
Current ELO Difference-10.92
Expected score-0.02
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Crystal Palace

L
Tottenham2–0Crystal Palace31 Oct · away
Pick: Tottenham 40% · hit
W
Fulham0–1Crystal Palace28 Oct · away
Pick: Crystal Palace 44% · hit
L
Crystal Palace0–2Newcastle25 Oct · home
Pick: Newcastle 39% · hit
D
Beşiktaş2–2Crystal Palace22 Oct · away
Pick: Beşiktaş 41% · missed
L
Brighton5–0Crystal Palace18 Oct · away
Pick: Brighton 49% · hit

Liverpool

L
Liverpool0–1Arsenal1 Nov · home
Pick: Arsenal 49% · hit
W
Liverpool2–0Brighton25 Oct · home
Pick: Liverpool 44% · hit
W
Liverpool4–3Villarreal20 Oct · home
Pick: Liverpool 54% · hit
W
Brentford1–2Liverpool17 Oct · away
Pick: Brentford 54% · missed
W
Lask Linz3–6Liverpool14 Oct · away
Pick: Liverpool 43% · hit

About this match

Crystal Palace and Liverpool meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Selhurst Park, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Crystal Palace win 31.7%, draw 28.3%, Liverpool win 40.0%. The pick is Liverpool win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.