ScoreProb
Premier League England Round 10 2026

Ipswich vs Bournemouth

Ipswich Home · Elo 1,612
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bournemouth Away · Elo 1,593
Portman Road, Ipswich Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ipswich win
Ipswich winPick
64.4%
Draw
17.9%
Bournemouth win
17.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

Ipswich history77 matches
Bournemouth history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Ipswich are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,612 against 1,593. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.68 goals a game over 77 matches for Ipswich, against 1.60 over 68 for Bournemouth.

  • Ipswich concede fewer

    Ipswich concede 1.27 a game, Bournemouth 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Ipswich matches, against 57% for Bournemouth. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ipswich
Bournemouth
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1612.3
ELO
1593.2
77
ELO · Matches
68
1612.3
Current Team ELO
1593.2
1593.2
Current Opponent ELO
1612.3
19.06
Current ELO Difference
-19.06
0.53
Expected score
0.47
77
History Matches
68
0.07
Residual Mean
0.07
55.28
Overperformance
55.43
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
3.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.10
Goals for per game
2.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.90
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.74
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
68
1.62
PPG
1.35
45.5%
Win rate
32.4%
26.0%
Draw rate
38.2%
28.6%
Loss rate
29.4%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.4%
31.2%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
34
1.81
PPG
1.35
52.8%
Win rate
32.4%
22.2%
Draw rate
38.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
29.4%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
73.5%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
36
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.68
Goals for per game
1.60
83.1%
Scoring rate
80.9%
61.0%
BTTS rate
66.2%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.68
88.9%
Scoring rate
88.2%
58.3%
BTTS rate
73.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
77
History Matches
68
1.68
Goals Mean
1.60
1.19
Goals Std
1.50
83.1%
Scored 1+ rate
80.9%
51.9%
Scored 2+ rate
47.1%
23.4%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.44
74.0%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.74
66.7%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
77
History Matches
68
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.14
Conceded Std
1.14
32.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.6%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
68
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.80
2.93
Stability score
0.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
67
28
Lead Matches
26
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.65
20
Trailing Matches
20
25.0%
Non-loss rate
35.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.80
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
54
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
16
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
9
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.93
Portability PPG Std
0.36
2.60
Portability PPG Range
1.00
35.03
Portability Score
58.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO19.06
PPG0.27
GF0.07
GA-0.17
PPG3.00
PPG0.45
PPG1.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate9.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate4.9%
Scored 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.60
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score2.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.32
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate31.9%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.57
Portability PPG Range1.60
Portability Score-23.20
Rest days-2.24
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.39
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO19.06
Current Opponent ELO-19.06
Current ELO Difference38.11
Expected score0.05
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ipswich

D
Hull City2–2Ipswich31 Oct · away
Pick: Hull City 47% · missed
D
Ipswich1–1Nottingham Forest23 Oct · home
Pick: Ipswich 55% · missed
L
Manchester City3–2Ipswich17 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester City 60% · hit
L
Manchester United5–2Ipswich30 Aug · away
Pick: Manchester United 39% · hit
W
Ipswich3–1Leicester25 Aug · home
Pick: Ipswich 40% · hit

Bournemouth

W
Bournemouth2–0Leeds31 Oct · home
Pick: Leeds 41% · missed
W
Bournemouth3–0Aston Villa28 Oct · home
Pick: Aston Villa 52% · missed
W
Manchester United0–3Bournemouth25 Oct · away
Pick: Manchester United 45% · missed
W
Bournemouth3–0AC Milan22 Oct · home
Pick: AC Milan 41% · missed
W
Bournemouth2–0Sunderland18 Oct · home
Pick: Bournemouth 46% · hit

About this match

Ipswich and Bournemouth meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Portman Road, Ipswich. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ipswich win 64.4%, draw 17.9%, Bournemouth win 17.7%. The pick is Ipswich win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.