Ashton United vs Workington
Match result probability Model pick: Ashton United win
Ashton United winPick
56.1%
Draw
23.6%
Workington win
20.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.9%
No47.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%
How much we know
Ashton United history74 matches
Workington history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ashton United
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.1%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Ashton United are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Ashton United are rated 27 Elo points higher
Elo 1,488 against 1,461. On rating alone Ashton United would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.23 goals a game over 74 matches for Ashton United, against 1.20 over 64 for Workington.
-
Defences are close
Ashton United concede 1.36 a game, Workington 1.52.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
46% of Ashton United matches, against 47% for Workington. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Workington@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1488.4
ELO
1461.4
74
ELO · Matches
64
1488.4
Current Team ELO
1461.4
1461.4
Current Opponent ELO
1488.4
26.99
Current ELO Difference
-26.99
0.54
Expected score
0.46
74
History Matches
64
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
49.45
Overperformance
48.13
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals 90
74
Matches
64
1.28
PPG
1.08
33.8%
Win rate
28.1%
27.0%
Draw rate
23.4%
39.2%
Loss rate
48.4%
77.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
23.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.1%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals 100
37
Matches
31
1.51
PPG
0.81
43.2%
Win rate
19.4%
21.6%
Draw rate
22.6%
35.1%
Loss rate
58.1%
78.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
37
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.23
Goals for per game
1.20
74.3%
Scoring rate
68.8%
58.1%
BTTS rate
53.1%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
73.0%
Scoring rate
64.5%
54.1%
BTTS rate
58.1%
74
History Matches
64
1.23
Goals Mean
1.20
1.03
Goals Std
1.13
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
35.1%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
9.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.1%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.36
Goals against per game
1.52
79.7%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.97
73.0%
Conceding rate
90.3%
74
History Matches
64
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.16
Conceded Std
1.17
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
13.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.97
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.7%
27.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
74
History Matches
64
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.61
1.03
Stability score
4.61
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
74
Eligible Matches
64
23
Lead Matches
15
65.2%
Lead Win Rate
46.7%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.60
21
Trailing Matches
20
28.6%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
80.84
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
61
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
9
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.08
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.19
56.11
Portability Score
86.46
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
74
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO26.99
PPG0.21
GF0.03
GA-0.15
PPG0.71
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate17.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate2.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches10
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-3.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate18.6%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate8.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.98
Portability Score-30.36
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.28
Current Team ELO26.99
Current Opponent ELO-26.99
Current ELO Difference53.97
Expected score0.08
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ashton United
W
Workington0–1Ashton United7 Nov · away
Pick: Ashton United 46% · hit L
Ashton United0–1Warrington Town3 Nov · home
Pick: Ashton United 47% · missed L
Ashton United1–2Rylands31 Oct · home
Pick: Ashton United 56% · missed W
Ashton United1–0Redcar Athletic24 Oct · home
Pick: Ashton United 62% · hit L
Avro3–2Ashton United21 Oct · away
Pick: Avro 47% · hit Workington
L
Workington0–1Ashton United7 Nov · home
Pick: Ashton United 46% · hit W
Bury1–2Workington31 Oct · away
Pick: Bury 55% · missed W
Workington3–2Cleethorpes Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 41% · missed W
Bamber Bridge1–2Workington17 Oct · away
Pick: Bamber Bridge 40% · missed L
Workington1–2Whitby Town13 Oct · home
Pick: Workington 54% · missed About this match
Ashton United and Workington meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ashton United win 56.1%, draw 23.6%, Workington win 20.3%. The pick is Ashton United win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.3%. Both teams to score: 52.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.