AFC Telford United vs Chelmsford City
Match result probability Model pick: AFC Telford United win
AFC Telford United winPick
39.8%
Draw
23.8%
Chelmsford City win
36.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes63.1%
No36.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%
How much we know
AFC Telford United history80 matches
Chelmsford City history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours AFC Telford United
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why AFC Telford United are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Chelmsford City are rated 46 Elo points higher
Elo 1,563 against 1,516. On rating alone Chelmsford City would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
AFC Telford United score more
2.00 goals a game over 80 matches for AFC Telford United, against 1.71 over 78 for Chelmsford City.
-
Defences are close
AFC Telford United concede 1.36 a game, Chelmsford City 1.27.
-
AFC Telford United games more often go over 2.5 goals
66% of AFC Telford United matches, against 54% for Chelmsford City. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chelmsford City@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1516.2
ELO
1562.7
80
ELO · Matches
78
1516.2
Current Team ELO
1562.7
1562.7
Current Opponent ELO
1516.2
-46.48
Current ELO Difference
46.48
0.43
Expected score
0.57
80
History Matches
78
0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
51.34
Overperformance
53.27
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.50
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals 90
80
Matches
78
1.56
PPG
1.59
41.3%
Win rate
44.9%
32.5%
Draw rate
24.4%
26.3%
Loss rate
30.8%
92.5%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
66.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
42.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals 100
44
Matches
38
1.82
PPG
1.58
52.3%
Win rate
44.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.7%
22.7%
Loss rate
31.6%
93.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
44
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
1.71
87.5%
Scoring rate
78.2%
72.5%
BTTS rate
56.4%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.76
88.6%
Scoring rate
76.3%
70.5%
BTTS rate
57.9%
80
History Matches
78
2.00
Goals Mean
1.71
1.64
Goals Std
1.59
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
52.5%
Scored 2+ rate
42.3%
28.8%
Scored 3+ rate
24.4%
2.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.76
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.36
Goals against per game
1.27
81.3%
Conceding rate
69.2%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.37
79.5%
Conceding rate
73.7%
80
History Matches
78
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.27
0.94
Conceded Std
1.21
42.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.9%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.1%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
80
History Matches
78
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
2.07
Goal Difference Std
1.97
1.54
Stability score
2.94
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
80
Eligible Matches
78
31
Lead Matches
32
58.1%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.77
21
Trailing Matches
14
38.1%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
14
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.07
71
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
5
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.17
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.75
Portability PPG Range
1.40
43.94
Portability Score
50.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
80
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-46.48
PPG-0.03
GF0.29
GA0.09
PPG0.24
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate9.3%
Scored 2+ rate10.2%
Scored 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.25
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate6.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score-1.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.09
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate31.0%
Trailing Win Rate2.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-6.69
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-11
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.40
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Current Team ELO-46.48
Current Opponent ELO46.48
Current ELO Difference-92.97
Expected score-0.13
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
AFC Telford United
W
AFC Telford United2–1Spalding United7 Nov · home
Pick: AFC Telford United 43% · hit W
Southport1–2AFC Telford United31 Oct · away
Pick: Southport 45% · missed W
Hereford0–1AFC Telford United27 Oct · away
Pick: Hereford 50% · missed D
AFC Telford United2–2Hebburn Town24 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Telford United 40% · missed W
AFC Telford United2–1Darlington 188317 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Telford United 48% · hit Chelmsford City
W
Chelmsford City2–1Farnborough7 Nov · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 45% · hit L
Chelmsford City0–2Farnham Town2 Nov · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 54% · missed W
AFC Totton1–3Chelmsford City31 Oct · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 37% · hit W
Dover0–1Chelmsford City27 Oct · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 37% · hit D
Chelmsford City3–3Tonbridge Angels24 Oct · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 41% · missed About this match
AFC Telford United and Chelmsford City meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at New Bucks Head, Telford. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: AFC Telford United win 39.8%, draw 23.8%, Chelmsford City win 36.4%. The pick is AFC Telford United win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.6%. Both teams to score: 63.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.