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FA Trophy England Round 128 2026

Billericay Town vs Waltham Abbey

Billericay Town Home · Elo 1,661
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Waltham Abbey Away · Elo 1,561
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Billericay Town win
Billericay Town winPick
68.0%
Draw
15.1%
Waltham Abbey win
16.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.6%
No38.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.5%
Under 2.530.5%

How much we know

Billericay Town history74 matches
Waltham Abbey history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.0%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Billericay Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Billericay Town are rated 100 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,661 against 1,561. On rating alone Billericay Town would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.01 goals a game over 74 matches for Billericay Town, against 2.08 over 53 for Waltham Abbey.

  • Defences are close

    Billericay Town concede 1.27 a game, Waltham Abbey 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Billericay Town matches, against 64% for Waltham Abbey. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Billericay Town
Waltham Abbey@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1660.6
ELO
1561.0
74
ELO · Matches
53
1660.6
Current Team ELO
1561.0
1561.0
Current Opponent ELO
1660.6
99.59
Current ELO Difference
-99.59
0.64
Expected score
0.36
74
History Matches
53
0.11
Residual Mean
0.06
58.96
Overperformance
54.05
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.50
2.50
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.10
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
53
1.96
PPG
1.79
59.5%
Win rate
52.8%
17.6%
Draw rate
20.8%
23.0%
Loss rate
26.4%
79.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
64.9%
Over 2.5 rate
64.2%
45.9%
Over 3.5 rate
49.1%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
26
2.08
PPG
1.35
65.0%
Win rate
34.6%
12.5%
Draw rate
30.8%
22.5%
Loss rate
34.6%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
40
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.01
Goals for per game
2.08
81.1%
Scoring rate
81.1%
55.4%
BTTS rate
54.7%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.42
87.5%
Scoring rate
65.4%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
74
History Matches
53
2.01
Goals Mean
2.08
1.47
Goals Std
1.67
81.1%
Scored 1+ rate
81.1%
59.5%
Scored 2+ rate
54.7%
39.2%
Scored 3+ rate
39.6%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
1.34
70.3%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.38
70.0%
Conceding rate
69.2%
74
History Matches
53
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.17
Conceded Std
1.50
40.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.8%
9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
18.9%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.6%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
53
0.87
Result entropy
0.92
1.97
Goal Difference Std
2.42
13.30
Stability score
7.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
74
Eligible Matches
43
33
Lead Matches
18
84.8%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.85
14
Trailing Matches
8
50.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
1.03
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.19
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
101.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
67
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
3
Long Rest History Matches
7
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.19
Portability PPG Range
0.65
55.98
Portability Score
67.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO99.59
PPG0.17
GF-0.06
GA-0.07
PPG0.73
PPG1.00
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches21
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches21
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.02
History Matches21
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.45
Stability score5.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.64
Eligible Matches31
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate1.5%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate16.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches31
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.54
Portability Score-11.94
Rest days-17.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches24
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.86
Current Team ELO99.59
Current Opponent ELO-99.59
Current ELO Difference199.2
Expected score0.28
History Matches21
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Billericay Town

D
Dagenham & Redbridge2–2Billericay Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Dagenham & Redbridge 53% · missed
W
Billericay Town5–0Hemel Hempstead Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Billericay Town 56% · hit
D
Billericay Town2–2Hampton & Richmond27 Oct · home
Pick: Billericay Town 72% · missed
L
Salisbury1–0Billericay Town31 Aug · away
Pick: Salisbury 49% · hit
D
Billericay Town2–2Tonbridge Angels29 Aug · home
Pick: Billericay Town 57% · missed

Waltham Abbey

W
Hastings United2–3Waltham Abbey24 Oct · away
Pick: Hastings United 44% · missed
W
Waltham Abbey2–0Bowers & Pitsea29 Aug · home
Pick: Waltham Abbey 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Billericay Town and Waltham Abbey meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Billericay Town win 68.0%, draw 15.1%, Waltham Abbey win 16.9%. The pick is Billericay Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.5%. Both teams to score: 61.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.