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FA Trophy England Round 128 2026

Avro vs Chester

Avro Home · Elo 1,632
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chester Away · Elo 1,631
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chester win
Avro win
21.9%
Draw
23.8%
Chester winPick
54.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%

How much we know

Avro history55 matches
Chester history88 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Chester are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,632 against 1,631. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Avro score more

    2.05 goals a game over 55 matches for Avro, against 1.43 over 88 for Chester.

  • Defences are close

    Avro concede 1.13 a game, Chester 1.14.

  • Avro games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Avro matches, against 50% for Chester. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Avro
Chester@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1632.4
ELO
1631.4
55
ELO · Matches
88
1632.4
Current Team ELO
1631.4
1631.4
Current Opponent ELO
1632.4
1.01
Current ELO Difference
-1.01
0.50
Expected score
0.50
55
History Matches
88
0.12
Residual Mean
0.07
58.49
Overperformance
55.48
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.20
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
2.50
3.90
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.20
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
3.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
3.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.20
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.40
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
4.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
88
1.96
PPG
1.73
58.2%
Win rate
48.9%
21.8%
Draw rate
26.1%
20.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
47
2.15
PPG
1.79
66.7%
Win rate
53.2%
14.8%
Draw rate
19.1%
18.5%
Loss rate
27.7%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
19.1%
2.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
27
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.05
Goals for per game
1.43
87.3%
Scoring rate
84.1%
60.0%
BTTS rate
55.7%
2.48
Goals for per game
1.43
92.6%
Scoring rate
85.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
51.1%
55
History Matches
88
2.05
Goals Mean
1.43
1.97
Goals Std
0.96
87.3%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
54.5%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
30.9%
Scored 3+ rate
10.2%
2.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.14
70.9%
Conceding rate
68.2%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.19
74.1%
Conceding rate
63.8%
55
History Matches
88
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.01
Conceded Std
1.09
27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.4%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.6%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.2%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
88
0.88
Result entropy
0.95
2.42
Goal Difference Std
1.58
11.78
Stability score
4.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
87
18
Lead Matches
30
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
76.7%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.83
11
Trailing Matches
18
45.5%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
77
1.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
12
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.69
Portability PPG Range
2.00
62.75
Portability Score
46.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
88
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO1.01
PPG0.24
GF0.62
GA-0.01
PPG0.36
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-33
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-33
Goals Mean0.62
Goals Std1.00
Scored 1+ rate3.2%
Scored 2+ rate9.1%
Scored 3+ rate20.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.50
Recent 10 Goals Std2.59
History Matches-33
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.68
History Matches-33
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.84
Stability score7.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std3.02
Eligible Matches-39
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate12.2%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate6.6%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-39
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-1.31
Portability Score16.04
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Normal Rest History Matches-42
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.19
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.08
Current Team ELO1.01
Current Opponent ELO-1.01
Current ELO Difference2.01
Expected score0.00
History Matches-33
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Avro

L
Avro0–3Warrington Town7 Nov · home
Pick: Avro 55% · missed
D
Bury2–2Avro3 Nov · away
Pick: Avro 51% · missed
L
Cleethorpes Town1–0Avro31 Oct · away
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 54% · hit
W
Avro2–1Hyde United24 Oct · home
Pick: Hyde United 47% · missed
W
Avro3–2Ashton United21 Oct · home
Pick: Avro 47% · hit

Chester

W
Brackley Town0–1Chester7 Nov · away
Pick: Chester 44% · hit
L
Chester0–1Hednesford Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Chester 62% · missed
W
Chester2–1Marine27 Oct · home
Pick: Chester 58% · hit
L
South Shields3–1Chester24 Oct · away
Pick: Chester 35% · missed
L
Chester0–1Morecambe31 Aug · home
Pick: Chester 66% · missed

About this match

Avro and Chester meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Avro win 21.9%, draw 23.8%, Chester win 54.3%. The pick is Chester win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.0%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.