ScoreProb
Log in
Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 14 2026

Atalanta II vs Pineto

Atalanta II Home · Elo 1,494
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pineto Away · Elo 1,496
Stadio Comunale Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atalanta II win
Atalanta II winPick
39.0%
Draw
28.7%
Pineto win
32.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%

How much we know

Atalanta II history66 matches
Pineto history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Atalanta II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,494 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Atalanta II score more

    1.48 goals a game over 66 matches for Atalanta II, against 1.19 over 58 for Pineto.

  • Defences are close

    Atalanta II concede 1.39 a game, Pineto 1.38.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Atalanta II matches, against 48% for Pineto. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atalanta II
Pineto@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.5
ELO
1496.4
66
ELO · Matches
58
1494.5
Current Team ELO
1496.4
1496.4
Current Opponent ELO
1494.5
-1.92
Current ELO Difference
1.92
0.50
Expected score
0.50
66
History Matches
58
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
48.86
Overperformance
49.99
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.70
1.30
Goals for per game
0.70
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
58
1.26
PPG
1.31
31.8%
Win rate
32.8%
30.3%
Draw rate
32.8%
37.9%
Loss rate
34.5%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.4%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
28
1.28
PPG
1.18
31.0%
Win rate
28.6%
34.5%
Draw rate
32.1%
34.5%
Loss rate
39.3%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
35.7%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
29
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.19
71.2%
Scoring rate
75.9%
62.1%
BTTS rate
56.9%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.00
72.4%
Scoring rate
67.9%
65.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
66
History Matches
58
1.48
Goals Mean
1.19
1.54
Goals Std
0.94
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.0%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.39
Goals against per game
1.38
84.8%
Conceding rate
75.9%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.29
82.8%
Conceding rate
78.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
66
History Matches
58
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.38
0.98
Conceded Std
1.16
39.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.7%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
58
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.50
0.43
Stability score
0.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
58
20
Lead Matches
18
55.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.81
19
Trailing Matches
17
31.6%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.90
Rest days
83.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
19
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
9
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.82
Portability PPG Range
0.11
57.89
Portability Score
90.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-1.92
PPG-0.05
GF0.30
GA0.01
PPG-1.00
PPG0.10
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate4.6%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.60
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate6.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate3.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches8
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score0.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate13.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.71
Portability Score-32.18
Rest days1.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO-1.92
Current Opponent ELO1.92
Current ELO Difference-3.83
Expected score-0.01
History Matches8
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atalanta II

W
Atalanta II4–3Reggiana7 Nov · home
Pick: Atalanta II 43% · hit
L
Spezia2–1Atalanta II1 Nov · away
Pick: Spezia 47% · hit
W
Atalanta II2–1Vis Pesaro28 Oct · home
Pick: Atalanta II 40% · hit
L
Atalanta II1–2Campobasso FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Atalanta II 39% · missed
W
Gubbio0–2Atalanta II18 Oct · away
Pick: Atalanta II 40% · hit

Pineto

L
Ravenna2–1Pineto1 Nov · away
Pick: Ravenna 57% · hit
W
Pineto1–0Gubbio23 Oct · home
Pick: Pineto 53% · hit
D
Pianese0–0Pineto17 Oct · away
Pick: Pineto 38% · missed
L
Guidonia Montecelio 19371–0Pineto4 Oct · away
Pick: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 52% · hit
D
Pineto0–0Livorno29 Aug · home
Pick: Pineto 40% · missed

About this match

Atalanta II and Pineto meet in Serie C - Girone B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Comunale. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Atalanta II win 39.0%, draw 28.7%, Pineto win 32.3%. The pick is Atalanta II win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.