Reggiana vs Livorno
Match result probability Model pick: Livorno win
Reggiana win
34.5%
Draw
27.0%
Livorno winPick
38.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.4%
No48.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%
How much we know
Reggiana history59 matches
Livorno history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Livorno
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Livorno are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Livorno are rated 86 Elo points higher
Elo 1,524 against 1,438. On rating alone Livorno would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Livorno score more
1.08 goals a game over 59 matches for Reggiana, against 1.38 over 58 for Livorno.
-
Defences are close
Reggiana concede 1.51 a game, Livorno 1.41.
-
Livorno games more often go over 2.5 goals
51% of Reggiana matches, against 62% for Livorno. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Livorno@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1438.2
ELO
1524.0
59
ELO · Matches
58
1438.2
Current Team ELO
1524.0
1524.0
Current Opponent ELO
1438.2
-85.86
Current ELO Difference
85.86
0.38
Expected score
0.62
59
History Matches
58
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
45.79
Overperformance
51.99
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.60
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.70
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals 90
59
Matches
58
1.10
PPG
1.50
27.1%
Win rate
43.1%
28.8%
Draw rate
20.7%
44.1%
Loss rate
36.2%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
27
1.43
PPG
1.00
35.7%
Win rate
25.9%
35.7%
Draw rate
22.2%
28.6%
Loss rate
51.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.38
74.6%
Scoring rate
77.6%
62.7%
BTTS rate
62.1%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.00
78.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
60.7%
BTTS rate
48.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
58
1.08
Goals Mean
1.38
0.85
Goals Std
1.03
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
27.1%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
6.8%
Scored 3+ rate
12.1%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.41
81.4%
Conceding rate
77.6%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.67
75.0%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
58
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.16
Conceded Std
1.23
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
59
History Matches
58
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.40
Goal Difference Std
1.73
2.28
Stability score
3.83
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
59
Eligible Matches
57
13
Lead Matches
17
53.8%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.88
18
Trailing Matches
15
11.1%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
81.77
Rest days
81.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
34
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
22
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.76
1.36
Portability PPG Range
1.81
46.11
Portability Score
39.64
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
59
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-85.86
PPG-0.40
GF-0.29
GA0.09
PPG-2.00
PPG0.43
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.42
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate2.7%
Conceded 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-1.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.31
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.45
Portability Score6.48
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-85.86
Current Opponent ELO85.86
Current ELO Difference-171.7
Expected score-0.24
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Reggiana
L
Atalanta II4–3Reggiana7 Nov · away
Pick: Atalanta II 43% · hit W
Reggiana2–0Sambenedettese30 Oct · home
Pick: Reggiana 38% · hit L
Grosseto2–0Reggiana25 Oct · away
Pick: Grosseto 49% · hit W
Reggiana2–0Torres17 Oct · home
Pick: Reggiana 47% · hit L
Reggiana0–1Spezia4 Oct · home
Pick: Reggiana 37% · missed Livorno
W
Livorno1–0Ostia Mare1 Nov · home
Pick: Livorno 59% · hit L
Spezia2–1Livorno28 Oct · away
Pick: Spezia 50% · hit L
Sambenedettese2–1Livorno24 Oct · away
Pick: Sambenedettese 37% · hit D
Livorno4–4Grosseto16 Oct · home
Pick: Livorno 44% · missed D
Pineto0–0Livorno29 Aug · away
Pick: Pineto 40% · missed About this match
Reggiana and Livorno meet in Serie C - Girone B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Reggiana win 34.5%, draw 27.0%, Livorno win 38.5%. The pick is Livorno win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.