Vis Pesaro vs Pianese
Match result probability Model pick: Vis Pesaro win
Vis Pesaro winPick
43.7%
Draw
31.1%
Pianese win
25.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.3%
No52.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.542.0%
Under 2.558.0%
How much we know
Vis Pesaro history66 matches
Pianese history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Vis Pesaro
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Vis Pesaro are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Pianese are rated 46 Elo points higher
Elo 1,526 against 1,480. On rating alone Pianese would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
0.98 goals a game over 66 matches for Vis Pesaro, against 1.07 over 59 for Pianese.
-
Pianese concede fewer
Vis Pesaro concede 1.23 a game, Pianese 1.08.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
38% of Vis Pesaro matches, against 31% for Pianese. The model puts this match at 42% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pianese@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1479.8
ELO
1525.9
66
ELO · Matches
59
1479.8
Current Team ELO
1525.9
1525.9
Current Opponent ELO
1479.8
-46.06
Current ELO Difference
46.06
0.43
Expected score
0.57
66
History Matches
59
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
48.25
Overperformance
51.53
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.10
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
2.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals 90
66
Matches
59
1.15
PPG
1.36
25.8%
Win rate
33.9%
37.9%
Draw rate
33.9%
36.4%
Loss rate
32.2%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
64.4%
37.9%
Over 2.5 rate
30.5%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.6%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
30
1.30
PPG
1.27
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
36.7%
30.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
6.7%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
30
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.98
Goals for per game
1.07
66.7%
Scoring rate
64.4%
50.0%
BTTS rate
44.1%
1.03
Goals for per game
0.90
73.3%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
66
History Matches
59
0.98
Goals Mean
1.07
0.91
Goals Std
1.04
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
64.4%
24.2%
Scored 2+ rate
30.5%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
8.5%
1.03
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.08
69.7%
Conceding rate
66.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.03
63.3%
Conceding rate
63.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
59
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.08
1.29
Conceded Std
1.03
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.5%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.5%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.6%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
66
History Matches
59
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.36
1.24
Stability score
0.03
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
66
Eligible Matches
59
20
Lead Matches
13
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
46.2%
0.57
Lead Points Retention
0.59
14
Trailing Matches
13
35.7%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.77
Rest days
82.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
36
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
26
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.05
1.08
Portability PPG Range
0.12
53.60
Portability Score
91.35
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
66
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-46.06
PPG-0.20
GF-0.08
GA0.14
PPG0.00
PPG0.03
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate2.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate2.8%
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.31
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score1.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.45
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate3.8%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate12.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.39
Portability PPG Range0.97
Portability Score-37.75
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.58
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO-46.06
Current Opponent ELO46.06
Current ELO Difference-92.12
Expected score-0.13
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Vis Pesaro
D
Gubbio0–0Vis Pesaro1 Nov · away
Pick: Vis Pesaro 38% · missed L
Atalanta II2–1Vis Pesaro28 Oct · away
Pick: Atalanta II 40% · hit L
Vis Pesaro0–4Ravenna24 Oct · home
Pick: Ravenna 47% · hit L
Latina1–0Vis Pesaro18 Oct · away
Pick: Latina 45% · hit D
Vis Pesaro2–2Perugia30 Aug · home
Pick: Vis Pesaro 36% · missed Pianese
D
Latina1–1Pianese1 Nov · away
Pick: Latina 44% · missed D
Forli0–0Pianese25 Oct · away
Pick: Forli 54% · missed D
Pianese0–0Pineto17 Oct · home
Pick: Pineto 38% · missed W
Pianese2–1Ravenna4 Oct · home
Pick: Ravenna 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Vis Pesaro and Pianese meet in Serie C - Girone B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Tonino Benelli, Pesaro. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Vis Pesaro win 43.7%, draw 31.1%, Pianese win 25.2%. The pick is Vis Pesaro win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.0%. Both teams to score: 47.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.