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Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 14 2026

Gubbio vs Grosseto

Gubbio Home · Elo 1,516
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Grosseto Away · Elo 1,546
Stadio Pietro Barbetti, Gubbio Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Grosseto win
Gubbio win
22.2%
Draw
31.1%
Grosseto winPick
46.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.8%
No55.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.0%
Under 2.561.0%

How much we know

Gubbio history58 matches
Grosseto history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.7%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Grosseto are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Grosseto are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,516. On rating alone Grosseto would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Grosseto score far more

    0.84 goals a game over 58 matches for Gubbio, against 1.45 over 60 for Grosseto.

  • Defences are close

    Gubbio concede 1.02 a game, Grosseto 1.00.

  • Grosseto games more often go over 2.5 goals

    26% of Gubbio matches, against 47% for Grosseto. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gubbio
Grosseto@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.4
ELO
1546.4
58
ELO · Matches
60
1516.4
Current Team ELO
1546.4
1546.4
Current Opponent ELO
1516.4
-30.01
Current ELO Difference
30.01
0.46
Expected score
0.54
58
History Matches
60
0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
50.39
Overperformance
54.13
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
60
1.31
PPG
1.65
32.8%
Win rate
46.7%
32.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.5%
Loss rate
28.3%
58.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
25.9%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
8.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
24
1.54
PPG
1.75
38.5%
Win rate
54.2%
38.5%
Draw rate
12.5%
23.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
23.1%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.84
Goals for per game
1.45
60.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
34.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.29
65.4%
Scoring rate
79.2%
38.5%
BTTS rate
37.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
60
0.84
Goals Mean
1.45
0.85
Goals Std
1.20
60.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
19.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.3%
5.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.00
62.1%
Conceding rate
63.3%
0.96
Goals against per game
0.92
57.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
60
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.01
Conceded Std
0.98
27.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
12.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
39.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
39.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
60
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.56
0.03
Stability score
3.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
60
14
Lead Matches
21
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.75
17
Trailing Matches
11
17.6%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.41
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.02
Rest days
82.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.76
26
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.02
Portability PPG Range
1.19
97.92
Portability Score
50.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-30.01
PPG-0.34
GF-0.61
GA0.02
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.21
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Failed-to-score rate19.7%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate13.8%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.61
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score-3.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.26
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate8.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.48
Portability PPG Range-1.17
Portability Score47.36
Rest days1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-30.01
Current Opponent ELO30.01
Current ELO Difference-60.01
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gubbio

L
Forli1–0Gubbio7 Nov · away
Pick: Forli 57% · hit
D
Gubbio0–0Vis Pesaro1 Nov · home
Pick: Vis Pesaro 38% · missed
L
Pineto1–0Gubbio23 Oct · away
Pick: Pineto 53% · hit
L
Gubbio0–2Atalanta II18 Oct · home
Pick: Atalanta II 40% · hit
L
Gubbio1–2Reggiana30 Aug · home
Pick: Gubbio 35% · missed

Grosseto

D
Vado2–2Grosseto31 Oct · away
Pick: Vado 51% · missed
W
Grosseto2–0Reggiana25 Oct · home
Pick: Grosseto 49% · hit
D
Livorno4–4Grosseto16 Oct · away
Pick: Livorno 44% · missed
W
Ostia Mare1–2Grosseto29 Aug · away
Pick: Ostia Mare 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gubbio and Grosseto meet in Serie C - Girone B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Pietro Barbetti, Gubbio. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Gubbio win 22.2%, draw 31.1%, Grosseto win 46.7%. The pick is Grosseto win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.0%. Both teams to score: 44.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.