ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 18 2026

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pereira

Atletico Nacional Home · Elo 1,631
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deportivo Pereira Away · Elo 1,459
Estadio Atanasio Girardot Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atletico Nacional win
Atletico Nacional winPick
66.3%
Draw
21.4%
Deportivo Pereira win
12.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.7%
Under 2.542.3%

How much we know

Atletico Nacional history84 matches
Deportivo Pereira history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 23:10 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Atletico Nacional are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atletico Nacional are rated 172 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,631 against 1,459. On rating alone Atletico Nacional would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Atletico Nacional score far more

    1.67 goals a game over 84 matches for Atletico Nacional, against 1.04 over 55 for Deportivo Pereira.

  • Atletico Nacional concede fewer

    Atletico Nacional concede 0.90 a game, Deportivo Pereira 1.40.

  • Atletico Nacional games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Atletico Nacional matches, against 44% for Deportivo Pereira. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico Nacional
Deportivo Pereira
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1630.7
ELO
1459.0
84
ELO · Matches
55
1630.7
Current Team ELO
1459.0
1459.0
Current Opponent ELO
1630.7
171.7
Current ELO Difference
-171.7
0.73
Expected score
0.27
84
History Matches
55
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.04
56.15
Overperformance
46.90
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.40
0.40
Goals against per game
0.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
0.70
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
55
1.82
PPG
1.15
53.6%
Win rate
27.3%
21.4%
Draw rate
32.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
70.2%
Over 1.5 rate
61.8%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
43.6%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.1%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
29
2.12
PPG
0.45
64.3%
Win rate
3.4%
19.0%
Draw rate
34.5%
16.7%
Loss rate
62.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
42
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.04
77.4%
Scoring rate
61.8%
44.0%
BTTS rate
43.6%
1.95
Goals for per game
0.69
85.7%
Scoring rate
44.8%
40.5%
BTTS rate
41.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.71
73.1%
Scoring rate
41.2%
38.5%
BTTS rate
35.3%
84
History Matches
55
1.67
Goals Mean
1.04
1.38
Goals Std
1.01
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
61.8%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.3%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
0.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
58.3%
Conceding rate
69.1%
0.69
Goals against per game
1.72
45.2%
Conceding rate
86.2%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.41
61.5%
Conceding rate
70.6%
84
History Matches
55
0.90
Conceded Mean
1.40
0.95
Conceded Std
1.32
23.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
0.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
54.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
55.2%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
58.8%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
54.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
55.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
55
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
1.76
Goal Difference Std
1.52
7.97
Stability score
1.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
55
33
Lead Matches
15
78.8%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.78
20
Trailing Matches
17
45.0%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
15.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.17
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
47
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
26
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
26
Matches
17
2.23
PPG
0.59
73.1%
Win rate
5.9%
3.8%
Draw rate
41.2%
23.1%
Loss rate
52.9%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
41.2%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
26
Current Competition Matches
17
2.23
Current Competition PPG
0.59
1.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.71
8
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.86
Portability PPG Range
1.75
59.07
Portability Score
43.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO171.7
PPG0.68
GF0.63
GA-0.50
PPG1.64
PPG1.67
PPG1.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches29
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate41.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches29
Goals Mean0.63
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate15.6%
Scored 2+ rate17.3%
Scored 3+ rate17.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.36
History Matches29
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-0.37
Clean-sheet rate10.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-1.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.03
History Matches29
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score6.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.79
Eligible Matches29
Lead Matches18
Lead Win Rate12.1%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate33.2%
Trailing Win Rate15.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches29
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches9
Current Competition PPG1.64
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.90
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.89
Portability Score15.54
Rest days-1.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.86
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.31
Current Team ELO171.7
Current Opponent ELO-171.7
Current ELO Difference343.5
Expected score0.46
History Matches29
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance9.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atletico Nacional

D
Bucaramanga1–1Atletico Nacional3 Nov · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 42% · missed
W
Atletico Nacional2–0Santa Fe30 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 50% · hit
W
Atletico Nacional2–1Independiente Medellin25 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 59% · hit
W
Atletico Nacional3–0Deportivo Pasto23 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 70% · hit
L
Cucuta1–0Atletico Nacional20 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Nacional 51% · missed

Deportivo Pereira

L
Deportivo Pereira1–3Deportes Tolima3 Nov · home
Pick: Deportes Tolima 43% · hit
W
Deportivo Pereira1–0Jaguares30 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Pereira 44% · hit
D
Once Caldas1–1Deportivo Pereira25 Oct · away
Pick: Once Caldas 58% · missed
W
Deportivo Pereira2–0Chico20 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo Pereira 56% · hit
D
Junior1–1Deportivo Pereira14 Oct · away
Pick: Junior 52% · missed

About this match

Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pereira meet in Primera A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 23:10 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Atletico Nacional win 66.3%, draw 21.4%, Deportivo Pereira win 12.3%. The pick is Atletico Nacional win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.7%. Both teams to score: 44.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.