ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 18 2026

Once Caldas vs Águilas Doradas

Once Caldas Home · Elo 1,579
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Águilas Doradas Away · Elo 1,524
Estadio Palogrande, Manizales Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Once Caldas win
Once Caldas winPick
55.6%
Draw
24.0%
Águilas Doradas win
20.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.6%
No48.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

Once Caldas history72 matches
Águilas Doradas history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:05 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Once Caldas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Once Caldas are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,579 against 1,524. On rating alone Once Caldas would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Once Caldas score more

    1.39 goals a game over 72 matches for Once Caldas, against 1.22 over 60 for Águilas Doradas.

  • Once Caldas concede fewer

    Once Caldas concede 0.93 a game, Águilas Doradas 1.32.

  • Águilas Doradas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Once Caldas matches, against 52% for Águilas Doradas. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Once Caldas
Águilas Doradas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1578.9
ELO
1523.6
72
ELO · Matches
60
1578.9
Current Team ELO
1523.6
1523.6
Current Opponent ELO
1578.9
55.31
Current ELO Difference
-55.31
0.58
Expected score
0.42
72
History Matches
60
0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
53.81
Overperformance
51.29
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.90
Goals for per game
1.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
60
1.61
PPG
1.30
43.1%
Win rate
31.7%
31.9%
Draw rate
35.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.7%
43.1%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
31
1.91
PPG
1.23
58.8%
Win rate
29.0%
14.7%
Draw rate
35.5%
26.5%
Loss rate
35.5%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
34
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.22
72.2%
Scoring rate
73.3%
45.8%
BTTS rate
61.7%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.10
76.5%
Scoring rate
64.5%
38.2%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.14
85.7%
Scoring rate
77.3%
76.2%
BTTS rate
63.6%
72
History Matches
60
1.39
Goals Mean
1.22
1.30
Goals Std
1.05
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
35.0%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.93
Goals against per game
1.32
63.9%
Conceding rate
78.3%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.29
58.8%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.27
85.7%
Conceding rate
81.8%
72
History Matches
60
0.93
Conceded Mean
1.32
0.87
Conceded Std
1.04
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
2.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.7%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
36.1%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
60
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.41
2.25
Stability score
0.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
60
23
Lead Matches
11
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
36.4%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.48
10
Trailing Matches
19
20.0%
Non-loss rate
36.8%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.83
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
22
1.43
PPG
1.50
28.6%
Win rate
40.9%
57.1%
Draw rate
27.3%
14.3%
Loss rate
31.8%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
13.6%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
21
Current Competition Matches
22
1.43
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.48
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.14
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.85
Portability PPG Range
0.28
59.21
Portability Score
79.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO55.31
PPG0.31
GF0.17
GA-0.39
PPG-0.07
PPG0.69
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate14.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate14.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score2.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.80
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate46.2%
Lead Points Retention0.38
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate4.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.61
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.57
Portability Score-19.83
Rest days-1.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO55.31
Current Opponent ELO-55.31
Current ELO Difference110.6
Expected score0.16
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Once Caldas

W
Santa Fe0–2Once Caldas2 Nov · away
Pick: Santa Fe 39% · missed
W
Once Caldas1–0Alianza Valledupar28 Oct · home
Pick: Once Caldas 59% · hit
D
Once Caldas1–1Deportivo Pereira25 Oct · home
Pick: Once Caldas 58% · missed
D
Millonarios1–1Once Caldas21 Oct · away
Pick: Millonarios 49% · missed
W
Independiente Medellin0–2Once Caldas18 Oct · away
Pick: Once Caldas 37% · hit

Águilas Doradas

W
Águilas Doradas1–0Fortaleza FC2 Nov · home
Pick: Águilas Doradas 43% · hit
W
Cucuta0–2Águilas Doradas27 Oct · away
Pick: Cucuta 45% · missed
L
Junior1–0Águilas Doradas24 Oct · away
Pick: Junior 48% · hit
W
Águilas Doradas2–1Deportes Tolima18 Oct · home
Pick: Deportes Tolima 39% · missed
D
Bucaramanga1–1Águilas Doradas13 Oct · away
Pick: Bucaramanga 51% · missed

About this match

Once Caldas and Águilas Doradas meet in Primera A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:05 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Palogrande, Manizales. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Once Caldas win 55.6%, draw 24.0%, Águilas Doradas win 20.4%. The pick is Once Caldas win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 51.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.