Bourne Town vs Bromsgrove Sporting
Match result probability Model pick: Bromsgrove Sporting win
Bourne Town win
25.2%
Draw
19.1%
Bromsgrove Sporting winPick
55.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.1%
No39.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%
How much we know
Bourne Town history41 matches
Bromsgrove Sporting history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Bromsgrove Sporting
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.7%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Bromsgrove Sporting are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Bromsgrove Sporting are rated 34 Elo points higher
Elo 1,477 against 1,443. On rating alone Bromsgrove Sporting would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.32 goals a game over 41 matches for Bourne Town, against 1.43 over 67 for Bromsgrove Sporting.
-
Defences are close
Bourne Town concede 1.66 a game, Bromsgrove Sporting 1.69.
-
Bromsgrove Sporting games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Bourne Town matches, against 67% for Bromsgrove Sporting. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bromsgrove Sporting@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1443.1
ELO
1476.8
41
ELO · Matches
67
1443.1
Current Team ELO
1476.8
1476.8
Current Opponent ELO
1443.1
-33.71
Current ELO Difference
33.71
0.45
Expected score
0.55
41
History Matches
67
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.02
45.27
Overperformance
48.70
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.80
1.70
Goals for per game
1.60
2.10
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals 90
41
Matches
67
1.07
PPG
1.18
29.3%
Win rate
34.3%
19.5%
Draw rate
14.9%
51.2%
Loss rate
50.7%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.1%
56.1%
Over 2.5 rate
67.2%
36.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
34
1.10
PPG
1.06
30.0%
Win rate
29.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
17.6%
50.0%
Loss rate
52.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
20
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.32
Goals for per game
1.43
73.2%
Scoring rate
74.6%
58.5%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.32
75.0%
Scoring rate
70.6%
60.0%
BTTS rate
58.8%
41
History Matches
67
1.32
Goals Mean
1.43
1.18
Goals Std
1.16
73.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
36.6%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
14.6%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.66
Goals against per game
1.69
80.5%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.82
80.0%
Conceding rate
88.2%
41
History Matches
67
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.22
Conceded Std
1.25
51.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.7%
26.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.4%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
19.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
19.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
41
History Matches
67
0.93
Result entropy
0.91
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.91
7.05
Stability score
9.42
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
35
Eligible Matches
67
7
Lead Matches
26
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
65.4%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.68
10
Trailing Matches
24
10.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
1.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
203.0
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
4
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
7
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.55
—
Portability PPG Range
1.20
—
Portability Score
47.72
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
41
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-33.71
PPG-0.11
GF-0.12
GA-0.03
PPG0.04
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-26
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-26
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Conceded 2+ rate0.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.71
History Matches-26
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score-2.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-19
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days119.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO-33.71
Current Opponent ELO33.71
Current ELO Difference-67.42
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-26
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Bourne Town
W
Bourne Town1–0Banbury United24 Oct · home
Pick: Banbury United 54% · missed W
Newcastle Town0–3Bourne Town29 Aug · away
Pick: Newcastle Town 45% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Bromsgrove Sporting
W
Bromsgrove Sporting3–2Leiston7 Nov · home
Pick: Bromsgrove Sporting 47% · hit W
Leighton Town1–5Bromsgrove Sporting31 Oct · away
Pick: Bromsgrove Sporting 41% · hit D
Bromsgrove Sporting2–2Stratford Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Bromsgrove Sporting 50% · missed W
Anstey Nomads0–1Bromsgrove Sporting24 Oct · away
Pick: Anstey Nomads 46% · missed D
Bromsgrove Sporting1–1Banbury United17 Oct · home
Pick: Bromsgrove Sporting 48% · missed About this match
Bourne Town and Bromsgrove Sporting meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bourne Town win 25.2%, draw 19.1%, Bromsgrove Sporting win 55.7%. The pick is Bromsgrove Sporting win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.