Ballymena United vs Linfield
Match result probability Model pick: Ballymena United win
Ballymena United winPick
39.5%
Draw
29.2%
Linfield win
31.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.9%
No49.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.7%
Under 2.551.3%
How much we know
Ballymena United history74 matches
Linfield history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Ballymena United
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.
Why Ballymena United are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Linfield are rated 63 Elo points higher
Elo 1,566 against 1,503. On rating alone Linfield would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.45 goals a game over 74 matches for Ballymena United, against 1.50 over 82 for Linfield.
-
Linfield concede fewer
Ballymena United concede 1.35 a game, Linfield 0.99.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
50% of Ballymena United matches, against 45% for Linfield. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Linfield@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1502.8
ELO
1566.3
74
ELO · Matches
82
1502.8
Current Team ELO
1566.3
1566.3
Current Opponent ELO
1502.8
-63.50
Current ELO Difference
63.50
0.41
Expected score
0.59
74
History Matches
82
0.00
Residual Mean
0.05
49.64
Overperformance
53.69
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.01
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.41
Overall performance9 signals 90
74
Matches
82
1.27
PPG
1.67
35.1%
Win rate
48.8%
21.6%
Draw rate
20.7%
43.2%
Loss rate
30.5%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.1%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.4%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals 100
34
Matches
38
1.44
PPG
1.18
38.2%
Win rate
28.9%
29.4%
Draw rate
31.6%
32.4%
Loss rate
39.5%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.7%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
34
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.50
77.0%
Scoring rate
70.7%
52.7%
BTTS rate
39.0%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.26
82.4%
Scoring rate
63.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
44.7%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
74
History Matches
82
1.45
Goals Mean
1.50
1.26
Goals Std
1.48
77.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.7%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
41.5%
16.2%
Scored 3+ rate
22.0%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.35
Goals against per game
0.99
74.3%
Conceding rate
59.8%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.18
64.7%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
74
History Matches
82
1.35
Conceded Mean
0.99
1.02
Conceded Std
0.99
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.3%
8.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.2%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.2%
23.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.3%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
74
History Matches
82
0.97
Result entropy
0.95
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.94
3.41
Stability score
5.47
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
71
Eligible Matches
81
18
Lead Matches
32
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.91
23
Trailing Matches
18
17.4%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
11
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.18
49
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
7
Competition Season Count
12
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.20
48.91
Portability Score
51.51
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
74
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-63.50
PPG-0.40
GF-0.05
GA0.36
PPG-1.00
PPG0.26
PPG-1.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate6.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.64
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.36
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate20.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-2.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate6.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-2.60
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Current Team ELO-63.50
Current Opponent ELO63.50
Current ELO Difference-127.0
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Ballymena United
L
Ballymena United0–1Bangor31 Oct · home
Pick: Ballymena United 52% · missed W
Newington Youth1–3Ballymena United20 Oct · away
Pick: Ballymena United 41% · hit W
Ballymena United2–1Crusaders FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Ballymena United 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Linfield
D
Linfield1–1Dungannon Swifts31 Oct · home
Pick: Linfield 39% · missed W
Portadown1–2Linfield23 Oct · away
Pick: Linfield 43% · hit W
Larne1–2Linfield20 Oct · away
Pick: Larne 45% · missed D
Carrick Rangers2–2Linfield17 Oct · away
Pick: Carrick Rangers 43% · missed W
Limavady United0–2Linfield29 Aug · away
Pick: Linfield 42% · hit About this match
Ballymena United and Linfield meet in Premiership on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Ballymena Showgrounds. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Ballymena United win 39.5%, draw 29.2%, Linfield win 31.3%. The pick is Ballymena United win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.7%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.