ScoreProb
Premiership Northern Ireland Round 16 2026

Limavady United vs Cliftonville FC

Limavady United Home · Elo 1,590
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cliftonville FC Away · Elo 1,553
Limavady Showgrounds Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cliftonville FC win
Limavady United win
26.5%
Draw
26.5%
Cliftonville FC winPick
47.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Limavady United history66 matches
Cliftonville FC history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Cliftonville FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Limavady United are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,553. On rating alone Limavady United would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.59 goals a game over 66 matches for Limavady United, against 1.65 over 80 for Cliftonville FC.

  • Limavady United concede fewer

    Limavady United concede 1.03 a game, Cliftonville FC 1.29.

  • Cliftonville FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Limavady United matches, against 61% for Cliftonville FC. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Limavady United
Cliftonville FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1590.1
ELO
1552.5
66
ELO · Matches
80
1590.1
Current Team ELO
1552.5
1552.5
Current Opponent ELO
1590.1
37.61
Current ELO Difference
-37.61
0.55
Expected score
0.45
66
History Matches
80
0.07
Residual Mean
0.04
55.66
Overperformance
53.03
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
0.90
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
80
1.83
PPG
1.65
53.0%
Win rate
47.5%
24.2%
Draw rate
22.5%
22.7%
Loss rate
30.0%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
30.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.8%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
37
1.78
PPG
1.51
52.8%
Win rate
43.2%
19.4%
Draw rate
21.6%
27.8%
Loss rate
35.1%
52.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
30.6%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
36
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.65
75.8%
Scoring rate
78.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.5%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.38
66.7%
Scoring rate
73.0%
36.1%
BTTS rate
48.6%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.67
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
66
History Matches
80
1.59
Goals Mean
1.65
1.37
Goals Std
1.30
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
52.5%
24.2%
Scored 3+ rate
21.3%
1.47
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.29
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.3%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.27
55.6%
Conceding rate
67.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
66
History Matches
80
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.29
0.95
Conceded Std
1.25
27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.5%
7.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
80
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.87
7.46
Stability score
4.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
80
22
Lead Matches
27
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
81.5%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.88
14
Trailing Matches
21
35.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
23.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
90.24
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
48
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
16
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.52
Portability PPG Range
1.25
69.62
Portability Score
53.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO37.61
PPG0.18
GF-0.06
GA-0.26
PPG-2.00
PPG0.26
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.77
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score3.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate9.4%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate2.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.73
Portability Score15.75
Rest days6.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.83
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO37.61
Current Opponent ELO-37.61
Current ELO Difference75.21
Expected score0.11
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Limavady United

L
Limavady United1–4Crusaders FC31 Oct · home
Pick: Crusaders FC 39% · hit
D
Larne1–1Limavady United27 Oct · away
Pick: Larne 56% · missed
D
Carrick Rangers1–1Limavady United24 Oct · away
Pick: Carrick Rangers 60% · missed
W
Annagh United3–4Limavady United20 Oct · away
Pick: Limavady United 40% · hit
L
Glentoran1–0Limavady United17 Oct · away
Pick: Glentoran 56% · hit

Cliftonville FC

W
Cliftonville FC4–2Larne6 Nov · home
Pick: Cliftonville FC 47% · hit
W
Cliftonville FC7–1Carrick Rangers31 Oct · home
Pick: Cliftonville FC 53% · hit
W
Dungannon Swifts1–3Cliftonville FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 39% · hit
W
Portadown0–2Cliftonville FC20 Oct · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 45% · hit
L
Cliftonville FC1–2Portadown17 Oct · home
Pick: Cliftonville FC 59% · missed

About this match

Limavady United and Cliftonville FC meet in Premiership on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Limavady Showgrounds. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Limavady United win 26.5%, draw 26.5%, Cliftonville FC win 47.0%. The pick is Cliftonville FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.