Crusaders FC vs Carrick Rangers
Match result probability Model pick: Crusaders FC win
Crusaders FC winPick
40.1%
Draw
25.2%
Carrick Rangers win
34.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.9%
No42.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.9%
Under 2.542.1%
How much we know
Crusaders FC history72 matches
Carrick Rangers history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Crusaders FC
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Crusaders FC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Carrick Rangers are rated 58 Elo points higher
Elo 1,539 against 1,480. On rating alone Carrick Rangers would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Carrick Rangers score more
1.36 goals a game over 72 matches for Crusaders FC, against 1.64 over 70 for Carrick Rangers.
-
Defences are close
Crusaders FC concede 1.74 a game, Carrick Rangers 1.61.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
61% of Crusaders FC matches, against 64% for Carrick Rangers. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Carrick Rangers@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1480.5
ELO
1538.6
72
ELO · Matches
70
1480.5
Current Team ELO
1538.6
1538.6
Current Opponent ELO
1480.5
-58.13
Current ELO Difference
58.13
0.42
Expected score
0.58
72
History Matches
70
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
49.44
Overperformance
52.68
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.10
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.37
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.74
Overall performance9 signals 90
72
Matches
70
1.28
PPG
1.31
37.5%
Win rate
37.1%
15.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
47.2%
Loss rate
42.9%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
Venue performance10 signals 100
38
Matches
33
1.34
PPG
1.36
36.8%
Win rate
39.4%
23.7%
Draw rate
18.2%
39.5%
Loss rate
42.4%
84.2%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
69.7%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
42.4%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
38
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.64
70.8%
Scoring rate
77.1%
51.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.82
68.4%
Scoring rate
78.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
72
History Matches
70
1.36
Goals Mean
1.64
1.19
Goals Std
1.61
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
77.1%
41.7%
Scored 2+ rate
38.6%
18.1%
Scored 3+ rate
24.3%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.82
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.74
Goals against per game
1.61
76.4%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.67
76.3%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
72
History Matches
70
1.74
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.51
Conceded Std
1.30
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.7%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.9%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
23.6%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
72
History Matches
70
0.92
Result entropy
0.96
2.05
Goal Difference Std
2.22
8.14
Stability score
4.16
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
71
Eligible Matches
69
24
Lead Matches
24
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.75
30
Trailing Matches
18
16.7%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
3.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.99
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.11
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
50
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
19
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.75
1.53
Portability PPG Range
2.07
47.86
Portability Score
40.12
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
72
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-58.13
PPG-0.04
GF-0.28
GA0.12
PPG0.00
PPG-0.02
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate6.3%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std-0.42
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate3.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.57
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Conceded 2+ rate1.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.37
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score3.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.64
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score7.74
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO-58.13
Current Opponent ELO58.13
Current ELO Difference-116.3
Expected score-0.17
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Crusaders FC
W
Limavady United1–4Crusaders FC31 Oct · away
Pick: Crusaders FC 39% · hit L
Crusaders FC0–5Coleraine FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Coleraine FC 48% · hit L
Ballymena United2–1Crusaders FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Ballymena United 39% · hit W
Glentoran1–2Crusaders FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Glentoran 58% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Carrick Rangers
L
Cliftonville FC7–1Carrick Rangers31 Oct · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 53% · hit D
Carrick Rangers1–1Limavady United24 Oct · home
Pick: Carrick Rangers 60% · missed W
Carrick Rangers3–0Newry City AFC20 Oct · home
Pick: Carrick Rangers 66% · hit D
Carrick Rangers2–2Linfield17 Oct · home
Pick: Carrick Rangers 43% · missed W
Bangor0–4Carrick Rangers29 Aug · away
Pick: Carrick Rangers 43% · hit About this match
Crusaders FC and Carrick Rangers meet in Premiership on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Seaview, Belfast. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Crusaders FC win 40.1%, draw 25.2%, Carrick Rangers win 34.6%. The pick is Crusaders FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.9%. Both teams to score: 57.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.