Larne vs Dungannon Swifts
Match result probability Model pick: Larne win
Larne winPick
39.2%
Draw
31.3%
Dungannon Swifts win
29.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.8%
No51.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%
How much we know
Larne history82 matches
Dungannon Swifts history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Larne
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.
Why Larne are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Larne are rated 98 Elo points higher
Elo 1,668 against 1,570. On rating alone Larne would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Larne score more
1.50 goals a game over 82 matches for Larne, against 1.35 over 81 for Dungannon Swifts.
-
Larne concede fewer
Larne concede 0.91 a game, Dungannon Swifts 1.46.
-
Dungannon Swifts games more often go over 2.5 goals
43% of Larne matches, against 53% for Dungannon Swifts. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dungannon Swifts@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1668.4
ELO
1570.5
82
ELO · Matches
81
1668.4
Current Team ELO
1570.5
1570.5
Current Opponent ELO
1668.4
97.91
Current ELO Difference
-97.91
0.64
Expected score
0.36
82
History Matches
81
0.09
Residual Mean
0.04
57.12
Overperformance
53.26
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.29
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
0.20
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.30
1.40
Goals for per game
2.10
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
2.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.72
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
3.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals 90
82
Matches
81
1.80
PPG
1.51
48.8%
Win rate
45.7%
34.1%
Draw rate
13.6%
17.1%
Loss rate
40.7%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
42.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
19.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.9%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
42
1.74
PPG
1.40
45.7%
Win rate
40.5%
37.1%
Draw rate
19.0%
17.1%
Loss rate
40.5%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
26.2%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
35
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.35
73.2%
Scoring rate
70.4%
46.3%
BTTS rate
42.0%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.12
71.4%
Scoring rate
64.3%
42.9%
BTTS rate
35.7%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.33
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
82
History Matches
81
1.50
Goals Mean
1.35
1.45
Goals Std
1.18
73.2%
Scored 1+ rate
70.4%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
39.5%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
21.0%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.91
Goals against per game
1.46
59.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.55
54.3%
Conceding rate
64.3%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
82
History Matches
81
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.04
Conceded Std
1.56
19.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.5%
7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.0%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
40.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
40.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
40.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
82
History Matches
81
0.93
Result entropy
0.91
1.81
Goal Difference Std
2.23
7.26
Stability score
9.44
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
81
Eligible Matches
80
26
Lead Matches
26
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
88.5%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
23
47.4%
Non-loss rate
8.7%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
90.24
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
53
Normal Rest History Matches
59
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
21
Long Rest History Matches
12
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
1
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
1
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
10
Competition Season Count
10
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.35
Portability PPG Range
1.23
54.20
Portability Score
54.13
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
82
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO97.91
PPG0.30
GF0.15
GA-0.54
PPG-1.00
PPG0.34
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate2.8%
Scored 2+ rate8.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std1.29
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.54
Conceded Std-0.53
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.74
History Matches1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score-2.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.73
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate38.7%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score0.07
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.67
Current Team ELO97.91
Current Opponent ELO-97.91
Current ELO Difference195.8
Expected score0.27
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Larne
L
Cliftonville FC4–2Larne6 Nov · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 47% · hit W
Larne1–0Portadown30 Oct · home
Pick: Larne 64% · hit D
Larne1–1Limavady United27 Oct · home
Pick: Larne 56% · missed W
Bangor1–2Larne24 Oct · away
Pick: Larne 52% · hit L
Larne1–2Linfield20 Oct · home
Pick: Larne 45% · missed Dungannon Swifts
D
Linfield1–1Dungannon Swifts31 Oct · away
Pick: Linfield 39% · missed L
Dungannon Swifts1–3Cliftonville FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Cliftonville FC 39% · hit W
Bangor1–2Dungannon Swifts20 Oct · away
Pick: Dungannon Swifts 46% · hit D
Bangor0–0Dungannon Swifts17 Oct · away
Pick: Dungannon Swifts 47% · missed W
Cliftonville FC0–2Dungannon Swifts29 Aug · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 48% · missed About this match
Larne and Dungannon Swifts meet in Premiership on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Inver Park, Larne. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Larne win 39.2%, draw 31.3%, Dungannon Swifts win 29.5%. The pick is Larne win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 48.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.