Glentoran vs Bangor
Match result probability Model pick: Glentoran win
Glentoran winPick
67.8%
Draw
18.2%
Bangor win
14.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.5%
No46.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.9%
Under 2.542.1%
How much we know
Glentoran history76 matches
Bangor history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Glentoran
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why Glentoran are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Glentoran are rated 117 Elo points higher
Elo 1,600 against 1,482. On rating alone Glentoran would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.68 goals a game over 76 matches for Glentoran, against 1.54 over 72 for Bangor.
-
Glentoran concede fewer
Glentoran concede 1.09 a game, Bangor 1.47.
-
Bangor games more often go over 2.5 goals
49% of Glentoran matches, against 58% for Bangor. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bangor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1599.6
ELO
1482.3
76
ELO · Matches
72
1599.6
Current Team ELO
1482.3
1482.3
Current Opponent ELO
1599.6
117.3
Current ELO Difference
-117.3
0.66
Expected score
0.34
76
History Matches
72
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.01
55.73
Overperformance
48.85
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
2.21
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.12
Overall performance9 signals 90
76
Matches
72
1.66
PPG
1.35
46.1%
Win rate
37.5%
27.6%
Draw rate
22.2%
26.3%
Loss rate
40.3%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.9%
48.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
Venue performance10 signals 100
41
Matches
37
1.68
PPG
1.30
43.9%
Win rate
32.4%
36.6%
Draw rate
32.4%
19.5%
Loss rate
35.1%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
43.9%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
22.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.7%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
41
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.68
Goals for per game
1.54
80.3%
Scoring rate
70.8%
51.3%
BTTS rate
52.8%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.54
80.5%
Scoring rate
73.0%
53.7%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
76
History Matches
72
1.68
Goals Mean
1.54
1.57
Goals Std
1.53
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.8%
46.1%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
17.1%
Scored 3+ rate
19.4%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.09
Goals against per game
1.47
64.5%
Conceding rate
76.4%
0.98
Goals against per game
1.32
65.9%
Conceding rate
73.0%
0.67
Goals against per game
2.50
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
76
History Matches
72
1.09
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.17
Conceded Std
1.33
26.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
19.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
76
History Matches
72
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
2.09
Goal Difference Std
2.31
3.17
Stability score
2.76
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
76
Eligible Matches
67
28
Lead Matches
26
82.1%
Lead Win Rate
73.1%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.81
17
Trailing Matches
24
41.2%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
55
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
15
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
10
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.33
Portability PPG Range
0.97
52.60
Portability Score
55.42
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
76
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO117.3
PPG0.31
GF0.14
GA-0.38
PPG2.00
PPG0.39
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.14
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate9.4%
Scored 2+ rate1.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.78
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate9.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate32.8%
Trailing Win Rate1.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-2.82
Rest days0.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO117.3
Current Opponent ELO-117.3
Current ELO Difference234.5
Expected score0.33
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Glentoran
D
Coleraine FC1–1Glentoran30 Oct · away
Pick: Coleraine FC 49% · missed W
Glentoran1–0Limavady United17 Oct · home
Pick: Glentoran 56% · hit L
Glentoran1–2Crusaders FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Glentoran 58% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Bangor
W
Ballymena United0–1Bangor31 Oct · away
Pick: Ballymena United 52% · missed L
Bangor1–2Larne24 Oct · home
Pick: Larne 52% · hit L
Bangor1–2Dungannon Swifts20 Oct · home
Pick: Dungannon Swifts 46% · hit D
Bangor0–0Dungannon Swifts17 Oct · home
Pick: Dungannon Swifts 47% · missed L
Bangor2–3Coleraine FC4 Oct · home
Pick: Coleraine FC 64% · hit About this match
Glentoran and Bangor meet in Premiership on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at The BetMcLean Oval, Belfast. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Glentoran win 67.8%, draw 18.2%, Bangor win 14.0%. The pick is Glentoran win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.9%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.