Coleraine FC vs Portadown
Match result probability Model pick: Coleraine FC win
Coleraine FC winPick
70.8%
Draw
17.4%
Portadown win
11.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.5%
No51.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%
How much we know
Coleraine FC history77 matches
Portadown history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Coleraine FC
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (70.8%). Picks in that band won 76.0% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 601 matches.
Why Coleraine FC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Coleraine FC are rated 210 Elo points higher
Elo 1,689 against 1,479. On rating alone Coleraine FC would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.
-
Coleraine FC score more
2.03 goals a game over 77 matches for Coleraine FC, against 1.32 over 65 for Portadown.
-
Coleraine FC concede fewer
Coleraine FC concede 1.00 a game, Portadown 1.52.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
55% of Coleraine FC matches, against 55% for Portadown. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Portadown@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1688.8
ELO
1479.3
77
ELO · Matches
65
1688.8
Current Team ELO
1479.3
1479.3
Current Opponent ELO
1688.8
209.5
Current ELO Difference
-209.5
0.77
Expected score
0.23
77
History Matches
65
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.03
59.03
Overperformance
47.88
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.60
1.90
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals 90
77
Matches
65
2.01
PPG
1.26
61.0%
Win rate
36.9%
18.2%
Draw rate
15.4%
20.8%
Loss rate
47.7%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.4%
29.9%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals 100
36
Matches
37
2.17
PPG
1.03
66.7%
Win rate
29.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
13.5%
16.7%
Loss rate
56.8%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
36
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.03
Goals for per game
1.32
87.0%
Scoring rate
67.7%
51.9%
BTTS rate
49.2%
2.22
Goals for per game
1.38
88.9%
Scoring rate
62.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
77
History Matches
65
2.03
Goals Mean
1.32
1.69
Goals Std
1.30
87.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.7%
51.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
2.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.00
Goals against per game
1.52
61.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.73
55.6%
Conceding rate
86.5%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.67
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
77
History Matches
65
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.02
Conceded Std
1.20
29.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.5%
6.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.5%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
39.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
77
History Matches
65
0.85
Result entropy
0.92
2.09
Goal Difference Std
2.01
14.64
Stability score
8.16
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
77
Eligible Matches
65
32
Lead Matches
22
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.82
19
Trailing Matches
16
36.8%
Non-loss rate
6.3%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
1.26
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.24
Rest days
83.11
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
56
Normal Rest History Matches
42
2.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
0.00
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
9
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.74
0.98
Portability PPG Range
2.00
61.60
Portability Score
40.43
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
77
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO209.5
PPG0.75
GF0.70
GA-0.52
PPG2.33
PPG1.14
PPG0.20
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate30.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.70
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate19.3%
Scored 2+ rate13.5%
Scored 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.25
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate19.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score6.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate10.2%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate30.6%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.42
Portability PPG Range-1.02
Portability Score21.17
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.79
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO209.5
Current Opponent ELO-209.5
Current ELO Difference419.0
Expected score0.54
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance11.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Coleraine FC
D
Coleraine FC1–1Glentoran30 Oct · home
Pick: Coleraine FC 49% · missed W
Crusaders FC0–5Coleraine FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Coleraine FC 48% · hit W
Larne2–3Coleraine FC16 Oct · away
Pick: Coleraine FC 35% · hit W
Bangor2–3Coleraine FC4 Oct · away
Pick: Coleraine FC 64% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Portadown
L
Larne1–0Portadown30 Oct · away
Pick: Larne 64% · hit L
Portadown1–2Linfield23 Oct · home
Pick: Linfield 43% · hit L
Portadown0–2Cliftonville FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Cliftonville FC 45% · hit W
Cliftonville FC1–2Portadown17 Oct · away
Pick: Cliftonville FC 59% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Coleraine FC and Portadown meet in Premiership on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at The Showgrounds, Coleraine. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Coleraine FC win 70.8%, draw 17.4%, Portadown win 11.8%. The pick is Coleraine FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.1%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.