Baník Ostrava U19 vs Sparta Praha U19
Match result probability Model pick: Baník Ostrava U19 win
Baník Ostrava U19 winPick
50.9%
Draw
19.4%
Sparta Praha U19 win
29.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes68.0%
No32.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.573.0%
Under 2.527.0%
How much we know
Baník Ostrava U19 history52 matches
Sparta Praha U19 history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Baník Ostrava U19
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Baník Ostrava U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Baník Ostrava U19 are rated 59 Elo points higher
Elo 1,586 against 1,527. On rating alone Baník Ostrava U19 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Baník Ostrava U19 score more
2.31 goals a game over 52 matches for Baník Ostrava U19, against 2.06 over 48 for Sparta Praha U19.
-
Defences are close
Baník Ostrava U19 concede 1.50 a game, Sparta Praha U19 1.58.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
67% of Baník Ostrava U19 matches, against 69% for Sparta Praha U19. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sparta Praha U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1586.4
ELO
1527.0
52
ELO · Matches
48
1586.4
Current Team ELO
1527.0
1527.0
Current Opponent ELO
1586.4
59.44
Current ELO Difference
-59.44
0.58
Expected score
0.42
52
History Matches
48
0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
56.01
Overperformance
51.89
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
4.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.30
2.00
Goals for per game
2.50
2.10
Goals against per game
2.10
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.11
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.23
Overall performance9 signals 90
52
Matches
48
1.94
PPG
1.71
57.7%
Win rate
52.1%
21.2%
Draw rate
14.6%
21.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
89.6%
67.3%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
53.8%
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
24
2.26
PPG
1.33
70.4%
Win rate
41.7%
14.8%
Draw rate
8.3%
14.8%
Loss rate
50.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
63.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
27
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.31
Goals for per game
2.06
94.2%
Scoring rate
83.3%
71.2%
BTTS rate
58.3%
2.41
Goals for per game
1.63
92.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
58.3%
2.33
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
52
History Matches
48
2.31
Goals Mean
2.06
1.67
Goals Std
1.57
94.2%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
59.6%
Scored 2+ rate
60.4%
36.5%
Scored 3+ rate
31.3%
2.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.58
73.1%
Conceding rate
72.9%
1.37
Goals against per game
1.88
66.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.50
66.7%
Conceding rate
50.0%
52
History Matches
48
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.32
Conceded Std
1.41
44.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.8%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.9%
1.37
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
5.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
5.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
52
History Matches
48
0.89
Result entropy
0.90
2.14
Goal Difference Std
2.29
11.30
Stability score
10.18
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
48
23
Lead Matches
15
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
93.3%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.96
6
Trailing Matches
17
33.3%
Non-loss rate
29.4%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.23
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.19
Rest days
84.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.17
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.34
49.66
Portability Score
74.77
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
52
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO59.44
PPG0.23
GF0.25
GA-0.08
PPG1.50
PPG0.93
PPG0.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate10.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.11
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.35
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score1.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.16
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate3.9%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.34
Portability PPG Range0.86
Portability Score-25.10
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.57
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO59.44
Current Opponent ELO-59.44
Current ELO Difference118.9
Expected score0.17
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Baník Ostrava U19
L
Dukla Praha U193–1Baník Ostrava U197 Nov · away
Pick: Dukla Praha U19 39% · hit D
Baník Ostrava U192–2Karviná U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Baník Ostrava U19 66% · missed W
České Budějovice U191–2Baník Ostrava U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Baník Ostrava U19 54% · hit L
Mladá Boleslav U194–2Baník Ostrava U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Mladá Boleslav U19 45% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Sparta Praha U19
W
Sparta Praha U195–0Slavia Praha U197 Nov · home
Pick: Sparta Praha U19 74% · hit W
Dukla Praha U190–3Sparta Praha U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Dukla Praha U19 43% · missed W
Sparta Praha U193–1Zbrojovka Brno U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Praha U19 58% · hit W
Karviná U191–2Sparta Praha U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Praha U19 51% · hit L
Sigma Olomouc U195–3Sparta Praha U191 Sep · away
Pick: Sigma Olomouc U19 52% · hit About this match
Baník Ostrava U19 and Sparta Praha U19 meet in 1. Liga U19 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Baník Ostrava U19 win 50.9%, draw 19.4%, Sparta Praha U19 win 29.6%. The pick is Baník Ostrava U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.0%. Both teams to score: 68.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.