ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 17 2026

Barracas Central Res. vs Argentinos Juniors Res.

Barracas Central Res. Home · Elo 1,433
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Argentinos Juniors Res. Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Argentinos Juniors Res. win
Barracas Central Res. win
30.2%
Draw
31.9%
Argentinos Juniors Res. winPick
37.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.9%
No55.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.0%
Under 2.561.0%

How much we know

Barracas Central Res. history53 matches
Argentinos Juniors Res. history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,699 matches.

Why Argentinos Juniors Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Argentinos Juniors Res. are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,433. On rating alone Argentinos Juniors Res. would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Argentinos Juniors Res. score more

    0.74 goals a game over 53 matches for Barracas Central Res., against 1.11 over 57 for Argentinos Juniors Res..

  • Argentinos Juniors Res. concede fewer

    Barracas Central Res. concede 1.28 a game, Argentinos Juniors Res. 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    30% of Barracas Central Res. matches, against 32% for Argentinos Juniors Res.. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barracas Central Res.
Argentinos Juniors Res.@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1432.8
ELO
1499.7
53
ELO · Matches
57
1432.8
Current Team ELO
1499.7
1499.7
Current Opponent ELO
1432.8
-66.88
Current ELO Difference
66.88
0.40
Expected score
0.60
53
History Matches
57
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.00
45.36
Overperformance
49.68
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
0.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.20
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
57
0.98
PPG
1.23
20.8%
Win rate
28.1%
35.8%
Draw rate
38.6%
43.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
56.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.2%
30.2%
Over 2.5 rate
31.6%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.3%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
30
1.12
PPG
1.03
26.9%
Win rate
20.0%
30.8%
Draw rate
43.3%
42.3%
Loss rate
36.7%
46.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
26.9%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
26
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.74
Goals for per game
1.11
54.7%
Scoring rate
68.4%
37.7%
BTTS rate
52.6%
0.73
Goals for per game
0.90
53.8%
Scoring rate
60.0%
34.6%
BTTS rate
53.3%
0.55
Goals for per game
1.08
45.5%
Scoring rate
70.8%
27.3%
BTTS rate
45.8%
53
History Matches
57
0.74
Goals Mean
1.11
0.78
Goals Std
1.02
54.7%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
17.0%
Scored 2+ rate
29.8%
1.9%
Scored 3+ rate
8.8%
0.73
Venue Goals Mean
0.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.11
67.9%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.23
61.5%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.36
Goals against per game
0.96
68.2%
Conceding rate
62.5%
53
History Matches
57
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.17
Conceded Std
0.89
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.8%
15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
45.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
54.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
45.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
57
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.31
Goal Difference Std
1.28
3.84
Stability score
0.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
57
5
Lead Matches
13
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
46.2%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.56
17
Trailing Matches
15
17.6%
Non-loss rate
46.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.21
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
91.00
Rest days
79.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
24
0.86
PPG
1.38
18.2%
Win rate
33.3%
31.8%
Draw rate
37.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
29.2%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
22.7%
Over 2.5 rate
29.2%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
22
Current Competition Matches
24
0.86
Current Competition PPG
1.38
-0.82
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.13
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.20
Portability PPG Range
0.25
83.27
Portability Score
79.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-66.88
PPG-0.25
GF-0.37
GA0.18
PPG-0.51
PPG0.08
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate13.7%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate21.8%
Failed-to-score rate6.2%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.18
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate9.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.59
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score3.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate33.8%
Lead Points Retention0.30
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.51
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.94
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score3.51
Rest days12.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-66.88
Current Opponent ELO66.88
Current ELO Difference-133.8
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Barracas Central Res.

W
Aldosivi Res.0–1Barracas Central Res.4 Nov · away
Pick: Aldosivi Res. 48% · missed
W
Barracas Central Res.1–0Gimnasia La Plata Res.29 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 44% · missed
D
Unión Santa Fe Res.1–1Barracas Central Res.22 Oct · away
Pick: Unión Santa Fe Res. 56% · missed
D
Barracas Central Res.1–1Atlético Tucumán Res.15 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Tucumán Res. 37% · missed
D
Godoy Cruz Res.0–0Barracas Central Res.8 Oct · away
Pick: Godoy Cruz Res. 48% · missed

Argentinos Juniors Res.

L
Argentinos Juniors Res.1–8Talleres Córdoba Res.3 Nov · home
Pick: Argentinos Juniors Res. 42% · missed
D
Banfield Res.1–1Argentinos Juniors Res.28 Oct · away
Pick: Argentinos Juniors Res. 37% · missed
L
Argentinos Juniors Res.1–2Rosario Central Res.20 Oct · home
Pick: Argentinos Juniors Res. 37% · missed
W
Tigre Res.0–1Argentinos Juniors Res.14 Oct · away
Pick: Argentinos Juniors Res. 37% · hit
D
Argentinos Juniors Res.1–1Sarmiento Res.1 Sep · home
Pick: Argentinos Juniors Res. 51% · missed

About this match

Barracas Central Res. and Argentinos Juniors Res. meet in Reserve League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Barracas Central Res. win 30.2%, draw 31.9%, Argentinos Juniors Res. win 37.9%. The pick is Argentinos Juniors Res. win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.0%. Both teams to score: 44.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.