ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 17 2026

Boca Juniors Res. vs Newell's Old Boys Res.

Boca Juniors Res. Home · Elo 1,604
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Newell's Old Boys Res. Away · Elo 1,567
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Boca Juniors Res. win
Boca Juniors Res. winPick
54.8%
Draw
24.3%
Newell's Old Boys Res. win
20.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes39.8%
No60.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.0%
Under 2.560.0%

How much we know

Boca Juniors Res. history52 matches
Newell's Old Boys Res. history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 22:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,777 matches.

Why Boca Juniors Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Boca Juniors Res. are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,567. On rating alone Boca Juniors Res. would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Boca Juniors Res. score more

    1.67 goals a game over 52 matches for Boca Juniors Res., against 1.30 over 56 for Newell's Old Boys Res..

  • Boca Juniors Res. concede fewer

    Boca Juniors Res. concede 0.58 a game, Newell's Old Boys Res. 1.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of Boca Juniors Res. matches, against 39% for Newell's Old Boys Res.. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 18 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Boca Juniors Res.
Newell's Old Boys Res.@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1604.2
ELO
1567.5
52
ELO · Matches
56
1604.2
Current Team ELO
1567.5
1567.5
Current Opponent ELO
1604.2
36.78
Current ELO Difference
-36.78
0.55
Expected score
0.45
52
History Matches
56
0.10
Residual Mean
0.06
57.28
Overperformance
54.09
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.63
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
56
2.02
PPG
1.70
59.6%
Win rate
48.2%
23.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
17.3%
Loss rate
26.8%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.3%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
29
2.15
PPG
1.41
66.7%
Win rate
34.5%
14.8%
Draw rate
37.9%
18.5%
Loss rate
27.6%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
27
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.30
76.9%
Scoring rate
78.6%
34.6%
BTTS rate
41.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.10
77.8%
Scoring rate
69.0%
25.9%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.33
71.4%
Scoring rate
87.5%
28.6%
BTTS rate
45.8%
52
History Matches
56
1.67
Goals Mean
1.30
1.46
Goals Std
0.98
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
78.6%
44.2%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.58
Goals against per game
1.02
46.2%
Conceding rate
55.4%
0.44
Goals against per game
1.24
40.7%
Conceding rate
69.0%
0.57
Goals against per game
0.92
42.9%
Conceding rate
54.2%
52
History Matches
56
0.58
Conceded Mean
1.02
0.72
Conceded Std
1.11
9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
1.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
0.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
59.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
59.3%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
44.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
56
0.87
Result entropy
0.96
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.58
13.50
Stability score
4.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
56
27
Lead Matches
23
85.2%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.87
6
Trailing Matches
12
16.7%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
92.17
Rest days
86.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
27
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
24
1.86
PPG
1.71
52.4%
Win rate
45.8%
28.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
19.0%
Loss rate
20.8%
61.9%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
29.2%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
21
Current Competition Matches
24
1.86
Current Competition PPG
1.71
1.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.42
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.01
0.27
Portability PPG Range
0.02
78.62
Portability Score
97.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO36.78
PPG0.32
GF0.37
GA-0.44
PPG0.15
PPG0.73
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate28.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.48
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.76
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.13
Stability score9.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.94
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate2.6%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches-3
Current Competition PPG0.15
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.68
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-19.34
Rest days6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.87
Current Team ELO36.78
Current Opponent ELO-36.78
Current ELO Difference73.56
Expected score0.11
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Boca Juniors Res.

W
Defensa y Justicia Res.0–2Boca Juniors Res.5 Nov · away
Pick: Boca Juniors Res. 47% · hit
L
Huracán Res.1–0Boca Juniors Res.22 Oct · away
Pick: Boca Juniors Res. 38% · missed
W
Boca Juniors Res.1–0Ferro 215 Oct · home
Pick: Boca Juniors Res. 80% · hit
W
Boca Juniors Res.1–0Colón Res.8 Oct · home
Pick: Boca Juniors Res. 77% · hit
W
Estudiantes La Plata Res2–3Boca Juniors Res.26 Aug · away
Pick: Estudiantes La Plata Res 36% · missed

Newell's Old Boys Res.

D
Newell's Old Boys Res.2–2Independiente Res.3 Nov · home
Pick: Newell's Old Boys Res. 36% · missed
D
Atl. Rafaela 22–2Newell's Old Boys Res.27 Oct · away
Pick: Newell's Old Boys Res. 43% · missed
W
Newell's Old Boys Res.2–1Platense Res.20 Oct · home
Pick: Newell's Old Boys Res. 59% · hit
D
Quilmes 21–1Newell's Old Boys Res.13 Oct · away
Pick: Quilmes 2 38% · missed
D
Newell's Old Boys Res.1–1Estudiantes La Plata Res6 Oct · home
Pick: Newell's Old Boys Res. 37% · missed

About this match

Boca Juniors Res. and Newell's Old Boys Res. meet in Reserve League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Boca Juniors Res. win 54.8%, draw 24.3%, Newell's Old Boys Res. win 20.9%. The pick is Boca Juniors Res. win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.0%. Both teams to score: 39.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.