ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 17 2026

Godoy Cruz Res. vs Gimnasia La Plata Res.

Godoy Cruz Res. Home · Elo 1,434
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gimnasia La Plata Res. Away · Elo 1,535
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. win
Godoy Cruz Res. win
30.9%
Draw
28.0%
Gimnasia La Plata Res. winPick
41.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.1%
Under 2.556.9%

How much we know

Godoy Cruz Res. history54 matches
Gimnasia La Plata Res. history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.

Why Gimnasia La Plata Res. are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gimnasia La Plata Res. are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,434. On rating alone Gimnasia La Plata Res. would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Gimnasia La Plata Res. score more

    1.07 goals a game over 54 matches for Godoy Cruz Res., against 1.33 over 58 for Gimnasia La Plata Res..

  • Gimnasia La Plata Res. concede fewer

    Godoy Cruz Res. concede 1.31 a game, Gimnasia La Plata Res. 0.97.

  • Godoy Cruz Res. games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Godoy Cruz Res. matches, against 41% for Gimnasia La Plata Res.. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Godoy Cruz Res.
Gimnasia La Plata Res.@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1434.0
ELO
1534.5
54
ELO · Matches
58
1434.0
Current Team ELO
1534.5
1534.5
Current Opponent ELO
1434.0
-100.5
Current ELO Difference
100.5
0.36
Expected score
0.64
54
History Matches
58
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
45.64
Overperformance
52.37
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
1.00
Goals for per game
0.70
1.20
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
58
1.00
PPG
1.50
24.1%
Win rate
37.9%
27.8%
Draw rate
36.2%
48.1%
Loss rate
25.9%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
28
1.48
PPG
1.36
40.7%
Win rate
28.6%
25.9%
Draw rate
50.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
21.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
27
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.07
Goals for per game
1.33
72.2%
Scoring rate
65.5%
53.7%
BTTS rate
41.4%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.18
77.8%
Scoring rate
60.7%
44.4%
BTTS rate
46.4%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.04
78.3%
Scoring rate
54.2%
60.9%
BTTS rate
33.3%
54
History Matches
58
1.07
Goals Mean
1.33
0.86
Goals Std
1.22
72.2%
Scored 1+ rate
65.5%
29.6%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
5.6%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
0.97
70.4%
Conceding rate
58.6%
1.04
Goals against per game
0.86
51.9%
Conceding rate
57.1%
1.48
Goals against per game
0.83
73.9%
Conceding rate
54.2%
54
History Matches
58
1.31
Conceded Mean
0.97
1.09
Conceded Std
1.00
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.3%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.9%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
0.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
58
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.59
4.38
Stability score
1.21
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
58
10
Lead Matches
16
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.81
15
Trailing Matches
14
6.7%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
86.00
Rest days
79.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
31
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
22
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
24
0.91
PPG
1.33
21.7%
Win rate
33.3%
26.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
52.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
29.2%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
23
Current Competition Matches
24
0.91
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.21
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.15
Portability PPG Range
0.28
86.85
Portability Score
77.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-100.5
PPG-0.50
GF-0.25
GA0.35
PPG-0.42
PPG0.12
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.25
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate6.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.64
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.35
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.08
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score3.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.42
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.64
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score8.98
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.69
Current Team ELO-100.5
Current Opponent ELO100.5
Current ELO Difference-201.1
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Godoy Cruz Res.

W
Unión Santa Fe Res.2–3Godoy Cruz Res.4 Nov · away
Pick: Unión Santa Fe Res. 54% · missed
W
Godoy Cruz Res.4–2Atlético Tucumán Res.29 Oct · home
Pick: Godoy Cruz Res. 42% · hit
D
Godoy Cruz Res.1–1Instituto Res.22 Oct · home
Pick: Instituto Res. 37% · missed
D
Gimnasia Mendoza 20–0Godoy Cruz Res.15 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia Mendoza 2 45% · missed
D
Godoy Cruz Res.0–0Barracas Central Res.8 Oct · home
Pick: Godoy Cruz Res. 48% · missed

Gimnasia La Plata Res.

L
Gimnasia La Plata Res.1–3Gimnasia Mendoza 24 Nov · home
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 53% · missed
L
Barracas Central Res.1–0Gimnasia La Plata Res.29 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 44% · missed
L
Gimnasia La Plata Res.0–1Talleres Córdoba Res.21 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 44% · missed
L
Banfield Res.1–0Gimnasia La Plata Res.13 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 39% · missed
D
Gimnasia La Plata Res.2–2Rosario Central Res.6 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 38% · missed

About this match

Godoy Cruz Res. and Gimnasia La Plata Res. meet in Reserve League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Godoy Cruz Res. win 30.9%, draw 28.0%, Gimnasia La Plata Res. win 41.1%. The pick is Gimnasia La Plata Res. win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.1%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.