Rosario Central Res. vs River Plate Res.
Match result probability Model pick: River Plate Res. win
Rosario Central Res. win
30.6%
Draw
30.3%
River Plate Res. winPick
39.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.3%
No50.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.544.2%
Under 2.555.8%
How much we know
Rosario Central Res. history58 matches
River Plate Res. history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours River Plate Res.
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,699 matches.
Why River Plate Res. are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
River Plate Res. are rated 40 Elo points higher
Elo 1,604 against 1,564. On rating alone River Plate Res. would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
River Plate Res. score more
1.41 goals a game over 58 matches for Rosario Central Res., against 1.62 over 53 for River Plate Res..
-
Defences are close
Rosario Central Res. concede 0.90 a game, River Plate Res. 0.89.
-
River Plate Res. games more often go over 2.5 goals
43% of Rosario Central Res. matches, against 53% for River Plate Res.. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
River Plate Res.@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1564.2
ELO
1604.3
58
ELO · Matches
53
1564.2
Current Team ELO
1604.3
1604.3
Current Opponent ELO
1564.2
-40.08
Current ELO Difference
40.08
0.44
Expected score
0.56
58
History Matches
53
0.06
Residual Mean
0.10
54.45
Overperformance
57.30
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.70
1.30
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
53
1.72
PPG
1.92
46.6%
Win rate
54.7%
32.8%
Draw rate
28.3%
20.7%
Loss rate
17.0%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.8%
43.1%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.3%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
25
1.77
PPG
1.72
48.4%
Win rate
48.0%
32.3%
Draw rate
28.0%
19.4%
Loss rate
24.0%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
56.0%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
31
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.62
75.9%
Scoring rate
77.4%
41.4%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.32
74.2%
Scoring rate
64.0%
32.3%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.36
78.3%
Scoring rate
63.6%
52.2%
BTTS rate
36.4%
58
History Matches
53
1.41
Goals Mean
1.62
1.13
Goals Std
1.25
75.9%
Scored 1+ rate
77.4%
41.4%
Scored 2+ rate
52.8%
20.7%
Scored 3+ rate
22.6%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.90
Goals against per game
0.89
55.2%
Conceding rate
60.4%
0.90
Goals against per game
0.80
45.2%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.17
Goals against per game
0.77
65.2%
Conceding rate
54.5%
58
History Matches
53
0.90
Conceded Mean
0.89
1.01
Conceded Std
0.90
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.6%
5.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.8%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
0.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
54.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
34.8%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
54.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
53
0.95
Result entropy
0.90
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.54
4.65
Stability score
10.04
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
58
Eligible Matches
53
18
Lead Matches
24
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.89
10
Trailing Matches
11
30.0%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.83
Rest days
85.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
33
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
24
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.18
Competition & season17 signals 170
23
Matches
22
1.52
PPG
1.77
39.1%
Win rate
50.0%
34.8%
Draw rate
27.3%
26.1%
Loss rate
22.7%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
59.1%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
23
Current Competition Matches
22
1.52
Current Competition PPG
1.77
0.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.59
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.34
Portability PPG Range
0.26
74.88
Portability Score
79.39
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-40.08
PPG-0.20
GF-0.21
GA0.01
PPG-0.25
PPG0.05
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate1.5%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate14.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Conceded 2+ rate3.2%
Conceded 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches5
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-5.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-4.51
Rest days-1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Current Team ELO-40.08
Current Opponent ELO40.08
Current ELO Difference-80.15
Expected score-0.11
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Rosario Central Res.
D
Racing Club Res.1–1Rosario Central Res.5 Nov · away
Pick: Rosario Central Res. 36% · missed L
Rosario Central Res.0–1Sarmiento Res.27 Oct · home
Pick: Rosario Central Res. 54% · missed W
Argentinos Juniors Res.1–2Rosario Central Res.20 Oct · away
Pick: Argentinos Juniors Res. 37% · missed D
Rosario Central Res.1–1Aldosivi Res.14 Oct · home
Pick: Rosario Central Res. 60% · missed D
Gimnasia La Plata Res.2–2Rosario Central Res.6 Oct · away
Pick: Gimnasia La Plata Res. 38% · missed River Plate Res.
W
River Plate Res.2–1Tigre Res.3 Nov · home
Pick: River Plate Res. 68% · hit W
San Lorenzo Res.0–3River Plate Res.28 Oct · away
Pick: River Plate Res. 37% · hit D
River Plate Res.1–1Vélez Sársfield Res.21 Oct · home
Pick: River Plate Res. 36% · missed L
Instituto Res.3–2River Plate Res.13 Oct · away
Pick: River Plate Res. 38% · missed D
Racing Club Res.2–2River Plate Res.6 Oct · away
Pick: River Plate Res. 41% · missed About this match
Rosario Central Res. and River Plate Res. meet in Reserve League on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Rosario Central Res. win 30.6%, draw 30.3%, River Plate Res. win 39.2%. The pick is River Plate Res. win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.2%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.