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Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 19 2026

Basingstoke Town vs Chippenham Town

Basingstoke Town Home · Elo 1,474
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chippenham Town Away · Elo 1,450
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Basingstoke Town win
Basingstoke Town winPick
46.8%
Draw
27.3%
Chippenham Town win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%
No40.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.0%
Under 2.541.0%

How much we know

Basingstoke Town history68 matches
Chippenham Town history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Basingstoke Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,474 against 1,450. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Basingstoke Town score more

    1.44 goals a game over 68 matches for Basingstoke Town, against 1.15 over 79 for Chippenham Town.

  • Defences are close

    Basingstoke Town concede 1.60 a game, Chippenham Town 1.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Basingstoke Town matches, against 57% for Chippenham Town. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Basingstoke Town
Chippenham Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1473.9
ELO
1450.5
68
ELO · Matches
79
1473.9
Current Team ELO
1450.5
1450.5
Current Opponent ELO
1473.9
23.42
Current ELO Difference
-23.42
0.53
Expected score
0.47
68
History Matches
79
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.67
Overperformance
47.64
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
79
1.13
PPG
1.08
29.4%
Win rate
30.4%
25.0%
Draw rate
16.5%
45.6%
Loss rate
53.2%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.0%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
32.9%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
40
1.24
PPG
0.80
32.4%
Win rate
22.5%
26.5%
Draw rate
12.5%
41.2%
Loss rate
65.0%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
34
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.15
77.9%
Scoring rate
73.4%
67.6%
BTTS rate
55.7%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.05
79.4%
Scoring rate
65.0%
67.6%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
79
1.44
Goals Mean
1.15
1.26
Goals Std
0.94
77.9%
Scored 1+ rate
73.4%
35.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.2%
17.6%
Scored 3+ rate
5.1%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.60
Goals against per game
1.75
86.8%
Conceding rate
81.0%
1.59
Goals against per game
1.95
85.3%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.75
Goals against per game
2.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
79
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.16
Conceded Std
1.33
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.4%
20.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.4%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
22.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.6%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
22.1%
Failed-to-score rate
26.6%
14.7%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
13.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
79
0.97
Result entropy
0.91
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.60
3.09
Stability score
9.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
68
Eligible Matches
78
16
Lead Matches
16
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
56.3%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.65
22
Trailing Matches
27
18.2%
Non-loss rate
25.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
65
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
7
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.88
Portability PPG Range
1.40
60.47
Portability Score
51.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO23.42
PPG0.06
GF0.29
GA-0.14
PPG0.00
PPG0.44
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.32
Scored 1+ rate4.5%
Scored 2+ rate1.1%
Scored 3+ rate12.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-6.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.03
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.52
Portability Score9.27
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO23.42
Current Opponent ELO-23.42
Current ELO Difference46.84
Expected score0.07
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Basingstoke Town

D
Basingstoke Town1–1Hanworth Villa7 Nov · home
Pick: Hanworth Villa 53% · missed
L
Chertsey Town4–3Basingstoke Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Chertsey Town 65% · hit
L
Basingstoke Town0–2Uxbridge27 Oct · home
Pick: Uxbridge 42% · hit
W
Basingstoke Town2–0Plymouth Parkway24 Oct · home
Pick: Plymouth Parkway 44% · missed
L
Havant & Wville4–1Basingstoke Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Basingstoke Town 39% · missed

Chippenham Town

W
Chippenham Town2–0Gosport Borough7 Nov · home
Pick: Chippenham Town 38% · hit
W
Chippenham Town4–2Evesham United3 Nov · home
Pick: Chippenham Town 41% · hit
L
Wimborne Town2–0Chippenham Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Wimborne Town 51% · hit
D
Hanworth Villa1–1Chippenham Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Hanworth Villa 67% · missed
L
Chippenham Town1–4Poole Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Poole Town 40% · hit

About this match

Basingstoke Town and Chippenham Town meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Basingstoke Town win 46.8%, draw 27.3%, Chippenham Town win 25.9%. The pick is Basingstoke Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.0%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.