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Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 19 2026

Evesham United vs Gosport Borough

Evesham United Home · Elo 1,482
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gosport Borough Away · Elo 1,491
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Evesham United win
Evesham United winPick
39.6%
Draw
28.3%
Gosport Borough win
32.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%

How much we know

Evesham United history71 matches
Gosport Borough history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Evesham United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,482 against 1,491. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.34 goals a game over 71 matches for Evesham United, against 1.45 over 67 for Gosport Borough.

  • Evesham United concede fewer

    Evesham United concede 1.42 a game, Gosport Borough 1.66.

  • Gosport Borough games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Evesham United matches, against 60% for Gosport Borough. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Evesham United
Gosport Borough@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.4
ELO
1491.3
71
ELO · Matches
67
1482.4
Current Team ELO
1491.3
1491.3
Current Opponent ELO
1482.4
-8.91
Current ELO Difference
8.91
0.49
Expected score
0.51
71
History Matches
67
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.91
Overperformance
49.45
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
67
1.35
PPG
1.33
36.6%
Win rate
38.8%
25.4%
Draw rate
16.4%
38.0%
Loss rate
44.8%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
50.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.7%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
37.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
34
1.65
PPG
1.32
47.5%
Win rate
38.2%
22.5%
Draw rate
17.6%
30.0%
Loss rate
44.1%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
47.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
40
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.34
Goals for per game
1.45
73.2%
Scoring rate
71.6%
53.5%
BTTS rate
55.2%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.26
80.0%
Scoring rate
64.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
67
1.34
Goals Mean
1.45
1.26
Goals Std
1.26
73.2%
Scored 1+ rate
71.6%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.8%
18.3%
Scored 3+ rate
22.4%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.66
76.1%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.47
65.0%
Conceding rate
76.5%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
71
History Matches
67
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.27
Conceded Std
1.24
36.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.2%
18.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
26.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
67
0.99
Result entropy
0.93
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.77
1.38
Stability score
6.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
66
17
Lead Matches
20
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.80
23
Trailing Matches
22
30.4%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
11
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.18
56
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
9
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
3.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.80
Portability PPG Range
0.50
64.33
Portability Score
70.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-8.91
PPG0.02
GF-0.11
GA-0.23
PPG0.50
PPG0.33
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate1.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate0.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches4
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-5.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.50
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate7.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.30
Portability Score-5.75
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.78
Current Team ELO-8.91
Current Opponent ELO8.91
Current ELO Difference-17.82
Expected score-0.03
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Evesham United

L
Hanwell Town2–1Evesham United7 Nov · away
Pick: Hanwell Town 50% · hit
L
Chippenham Town4–2Evesham United3 Nov · away
Pick: Chippenham Town 41% · hit
W
Evesham United3–2Bracknell Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Evesham United 52% · hit
L
Evesham United0–4Halesowen Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Halesowen Town 44% · hit
L
Chertsey Town2–0Evesham United20 Oct · away
Pick: Chertsey Town 61% · hit

Gosport Borough

L
Chippenham Town2–0Gosport Borough7 Nov · away
Pick: Chippenham Town 38% · hit
W
Gosport Borough3–2Hanwell Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Hanwell Town 38% · missed
W
Bracknell Town1–3Gosport Borough27 Oct · away
Pick: Gosport Borough 39% · hit
L
Gosport Borough0–2Chichester City24 Oct · home
Pick: Chichester City 42% · hit
L
Wimborne Town3–0Gosport Borough20 Oct · away
Pick: Wimborne Town 49% · hit

About this match

Evesham United and Gosport Borough meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Evesham United win 39.6%, draw 28.3%, Gosport Borough win 32.1%. The pick is Evesham United win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.