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Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 19 2026

Gloucester City vs Sholing

Gloucester City Home · Elo 1,591
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sholing Away · Elo 1,554
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gloucester City win
Gloucester City winPick
58.6%
Draw
22.2%
Sholing win
19.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.4%
No44.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%

How much we know

Gloucester City history80 matches
Sholing history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Gloucester City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gloucester City are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,554. On rating alone Gloucester City would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Gloucester City score more

    1.94 goals a game over 80 matches for Gloucester City, against 1.66 over 73 for Sholing.

  • Defences are close

    Gloucester City concede 1.15 a game, Sholing 1.25.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Gloucester City matches, against 55% for Sholing. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gloucester City
Sholing@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1591.4
ELO
1553.6
80
ELO · Matches
73
1591.4
Current Team ELO
1553.6
1553.6
Current Opponent ELO
1591.4
37.74
Current ELO Difference
-37.74
0.55
Expected score
0.45
80
History Matches
73
0.06
Residual Mean
0.05
54.56
Overperformance
53.61
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
73
1.78
PPG
1.62
51.3%
Win rate
45.2%
23.8%
Draw rate
26.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
28.8%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
36.3%
Over 3.5 rate
30.1%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
32
1.98
PPG
1.47
58.5%
Win rate
37.5%
22.0%
Draw rate
34.4%
19.5%
Loss rate
28.1%
80.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
34.4%
43.9%
Over 3.5 rate
18.8%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
41
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.94
Goals for per game
1.66
86.3%
Scoring rate
84.9%
55.0%
BTTS rate
54.8%
2.27
Goals for per game
1.25
90.2%
Scoring rate
78.1%
58.5%
BTTS rate
43.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
80
History Matches
73
1.94
Goals Mean
1.66
1.50
Goals Std
1.21
86.3%
Scored 1+ rate
84.9%
55.0%
Scored 2+ rate
46.6%
28.8%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
2.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.25
67.5%
Conceding rate
64.4%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.03
65.9%
Conceding rate
53.1%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
80
History Matches
73
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.05
Conceded Std
1.21
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.4%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.1%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.9%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.1%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.9%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
73
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.73
6.19
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
71
36
Lead Matches
26
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.82
11
Trailing Matches
14
54.5%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
66
Normal Rest History Matches
63
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
7
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
8
Competition Season Count
7
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.00
55.88
Portability Score
57.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO37.74
PPG0.16
GF0.28
GA-0.10
PPG0.00
PPG0.51
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate1.3%
Scored 2+ rate8.4%
Scored 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.10
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score3.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.73
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate33.1%
Trailing Win Rate3.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-2.05
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.92
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO37.74
Current Opponent ELO-37.74
Current ELO Difference75.47
Expected score0.11
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gloucester City

D
Yate Town1–1Gloucester City7 Nov · away
Pick: Yate Town 42% · missed
D
Gloucester City2–2Berkhamsted31 Oct · home
Pick: Gloucester City 61% · missed
L
Plymouth Parkway1–0Gloucester City27 Oct · away
Pick: Plymouth Parkway 42% · hit
D
Barrow0–0Gloucester City17 Oct · away
Pick: Barrow 40% · missed
L
Gloucester City1–2Evesham United31 Aug · home
Pick: Gloucester City 53% · missed

Sholing

L
Salisbury6–0Sholing7 Nov · away
Pick: Salisbury 45% · hit
W
Sholing4–2Malvern Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Sholing 58% · hit
D
Berkhamsted1–1Sholing27 Oct · away
Pick: Berkhamsted 38% · missed
L
Weymouth3–2Sholing24 Oct · away
Pick: Sholing 52% · missed
D
Yate Town1–1Sholing20 Oct · away
Pick: Yate Town 44% · missed

About this match

Gloucester City and Sholing meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Gloucester City win 58.6%, draw 22.2%, Sholing win 19.2%. The pick is Gloucester City win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.7%. Both teams to score: 55.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.