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Non League Premier - Southern South England Round 19 2026

Havant & Wville vs Yate Town

Havant & Wville Home · Elo 1,485
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Yate Town Away · Elo 1,512
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Yate Town win
Havant & Wville win
32.9%
Draw
20.8%
Yate Town winPick
46.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%

How much we know

Havant & Wville history71 matches
Yate Town history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Yate Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Yate Town are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,485. On rating alone Yate Town would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Havant & Wville score more

    1.72 goals a game over 71 matches for Havant & Wville, against 1.45 over 66 for Yate Town.

  • Defences are close

    Havant & Wville concede 1.55 a game, Yate Town 1.42.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Havant & Wville matches, against 59% for Yate Town. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Havant & Wville
Yate Town@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1485.4
ELO
1511.6
71
ELO · Matches
66
1485.4
Current Team ELO
1511.6
1511.6
Current Opponent ELO
1485.4
-26.12
Current ELO Difference
26.12
0.46
Expected score
0.54
71
History Matches
66
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
49.27
Overperformance
50.93
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
2.00
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
2.30
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
66
1.41
PPG
1.36
40.8%
Win rate
36.4%
18.3%
Draw rate
27.3%
40.8%
Loss rate
36.4%
81.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
64.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
43.7%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
32
1.64
PPG
1.09
50.0%
Win rate
28.1%
13.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
36.1%
Loss rate
46.9%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.6%
52.8%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
36
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.45
76.1%
Scoring rate
78.8%
54.9%
BTTS rate
63.6%
2.03
Goals for per game
1.38
77.8%
Scoring rate
81.3%
52.8%
BTTS rate
68.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
66
1.72
Goals Mean
1.45
1.41
Goals Std
1.18
76.1%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
42.4%
29.6%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.42
74.6%
Conceding rate
80.3%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.75
69.4%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
71
History Matches
66
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.24
Conceded Std
1.03
47.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.9%
26.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
23.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
66
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.60
5.13
Stability score
0.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
60
20
Lead Matches
18
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.81
20
Trailing Matches
18
20.0%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
52
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
12
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
2.00
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.36
1.07
Portability PPG Range
0.76
54.93
Portability Score
58.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-26.12
PPG0.04
GF0.26
GA0.13
PPG-1.25
PPG0.55
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate18.1%
Failed-to-score rate3.5%
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate8.3%
Scored 3+ rate12.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate3.9%
Conceded 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.66
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score4.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.90
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate2.2%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.31
Portability Score-3.27
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.36
Current Team ELO-26.12
Current Opponent ELO26.12
Current ELO Difference-52.23
Expected score-0.08
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.45

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Havant & Wville

L
Malvern Town1–0Havant & Wville7 Nov · away
Pick: Malvern Town 42% · hit
W
Havant & Wville1–0Taunton Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Taunton Town 47% · missed
L
Hanwell Town6–1Havant & Wville27 Oct · away
Pick: Hanwell Town 52% · hit
L
Bath City1–0Havant & Wville20 Oct · away
Pick: Bath City 55% · hit
D
Havant & Wville2–2Hanworth Villa17 Oct · home
Pick: Hanworth Villa 63% · missed

Yate Town

D
Yate Town1–1Gloucester City7 Nov · home
Pick: Yate Town 42% · missed
L
Uxbridge2–0Yate Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Uxbridge 51% · hit
D
Yate Town0–0Wimborne Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Yate Town 48% · missed
D
Yate Town1–1Sholing20 Oct · home
Pick: Yate Town 44% · missed
L
Malvern Town3–2Yate Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Yate Town 46% · missed

About this match

Havant & Wville and Yate Town meet in Non League Premier - Southern South on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Havant & Wville win 32.9%, draw 20.8%, Yate Town win 46.3%. The pick is Yate Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.9%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.