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Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Beith vs Auchinleck Talbot

Beith Home · Elo 1,487
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Auchinleck Talbot Away · Elo 1,553
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Auchinleck Talbot win
Beith win
13.1%
Draw
11.7%
Auchinleck Talbot winPick
75.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.1%
Under 2.522.9%

How much we know

Beith history6 matches
Auchinleck Talbot history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (75.1%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.

Why Auchinleck Talbot are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Auchinleck Talbot are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,487. On rating alone Auchinleck Talbot would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Auchinleck Talbot score far more

    1.83 goals a game over 6 matches for Beith, against 2.91 over 11 for Auchinleck Talbot.

  • Auchinleck Talbot concede fewer

    Beith concede 3.17 a game, Auchinleck Talbot 0.82.

  • Beith games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of Beith matches, against 73% for Auchinleck Talbot. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Beith
Auchinleck Talbot@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.4
ELO
1552.8
6
ELO · Matches
11
1487.4
Current Team ELO
1552.8
1552.8
Current Opponent ELO
1487.4
-65.43
Current ELO Difference
65.43
0.41
Expected score
0.59
6
History Matches
11
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.25
48.28
Overperformance
58.78
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
4.00
3.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
6
Matches
10
1.17
PPG
2.20
1.83
Goals for per game
3.00
3.17
Goals against per game
0.80
33.3%
Win rate
70.0%
1.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
0.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.90
3.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
11
1.17
PPG
2.27
33.3%
Win rate
72.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
9.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
18.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
83.3%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.40
25.0%
Win rate
80.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.85
4
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.83
Goals for per game
2.91
100.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
36.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
1.83
Goals for per game
3.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
6
History Matches
11
1.83
Goals Mean
2.91
0.69
Goals Std
2.78
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
63.6%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
54.5%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
3.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.17
Goals against per game
0.82
100.0%
Conceding rate
54.5%
2.75
Goals against per game
0.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
3.17
Goals against per game
0.83
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
6
History Matches
11
3.17
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.95
Conceded Std
0.94
83.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.2%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
2.75
Venue Conceded Mean
0.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
11
0.92
Result entropy
0.69
2.43
Goal Difference Std
3.26
7.94
Stability score
30.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
11
0
Lead Matches
5
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
4
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
1.45
1.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.45
1.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
2
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.25
1
Long Rest History Matches
5
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
2.17
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
83.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.95
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.17
Current Competition PPG
2.17
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.50
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.04
—
Portability PPG Range
0.08
—
Portability Score
92.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-65.43
PPG-1.11
GF-1.08
GA2.35
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.03
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.45
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.60
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-1.08
Goals Std-2.09
Scored 1+ rate27.3%
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.38
Venue Goals Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.21
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean2.35
Conceded Std1.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.45
Conceded 2+ rate65.2%
Conceded 3+ rate40.9%
Venue Conceded Mean1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.37
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.97
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.23
Goal Difference Std-0.83
Stability score-22.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.97
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-5
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate-0.50
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.83
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Current Team ELO-65.43
Current Opponent ELO65.43
Current ELO Difference-130.9
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.32
Overperformance-10.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Beith

L
Clydebank2–0Beith17 Oct · away
Pick: Clydebank 82% · hit
L
Pollok2–1Beith29 Aug · away
Pick: Pollok 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Auchinleck Talbot

W
Auchinleck Talbot1–0Albion Rovers31 Oct · home
Pick: Auchinleck Talbot 66% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Beith and Auchinleck Talbot meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Beith win 13.1%, draw 11.7%, Auchinleck Talbot win 75.1%. The pick is Auchinleck Talbot win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.1%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.