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Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Newton Stewart vs Renfrew

Newton Stewart Home · Elo 1,493
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Renfrew Away · Elo 1,451
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Renfrew win
Newton Stewart win
33.0%
Draw
16.7%
Renfrew winPick
50.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.0%
Under 2.524.0%

How much we know

Newton Stewart history3 matches
Renfrew history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Renfrew are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Newton Stewart are rated 42 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,493 against 1,451. On rating alone Newton Stewart would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Renfrew score far more

    0.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Newton Stewart, against 1.50 over 6 for Renfrew.

  • Defences are close

    Newton Stewart concede 3.67 a game, Renfrew 3.33.

  • Renfrew games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Newton Stewart matches, against 83% for Renfrew. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Newton Stewart
Renfrew@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.7
ELO
1450.9
3
ELO · Matches
6
1492.7
Current Team ELO
1450.9
1450.9
Current Opponent ELO
1492.7
41.80
Current ELO Difference
-41.80
0.56
Expected score
0.44
3
History Matches
6
-0.09
Residual Mean
-0.38
48.88
Overperformance
41.26
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.38
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
0.67
PPG
0.20
0.67
Goals for per game
1.40
3.67
Goals against per game
3.20
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
3
Matches
6
0.67
PPG
0.17
0.67
Goals for per game
1.50
3.67
Goals against per game
3.33
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.96
3.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.33
3.86
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.41
4.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
6
0.67
PPG
0.17
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
83.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
83.3%
4.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
4.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.67
Goals for per game
1.50
33.3%
Scoring rate
83.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.50
33.3%
Scoring rate
83.3%
33.3%
BTTS rate
83.3%
3
History Matches
6
0.67
Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Goals Std
0.96
33.3%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.67
Goals against per game
3.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
5.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3.67
Goals against per game
3.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3
History Matches
6
3.67
Conceded Mean
3.33
3.86
Conceded Std
1.11
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
66.7%
5.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
6
0.58
Result entropy
0.41
4.24
Goal Difference Std
0.90
42.06
Stability score
58.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Lead Win RateLead Points Retention
3
Eligible Matches
6
0
Lead Matches
0
2
Trailing Matches
4
50.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
3.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
2.33
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
98.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
2
Normal Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
0
Long Rest History Matches
1
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
3
Matches
6
0.67
PPG
0.17
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
83.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
83.3%
4.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.90
3
Current Competition Matches
6
0.67
Current Competition PPG
0.17
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.83
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO41.80
PPG0.50
GF-0.83
GA0.33
PPG0.50
PPG0.00
PPG0.47
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate50.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.83
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.50
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std2.75
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.33
Conceded 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Conceded Mean3.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std2.75
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std3.35
Stability score-16.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std3.35
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches0
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Current Competition Matches-3
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.17
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches-1
Current Team ELO41.80
Current Opponent ELO-41.80
Current ELO Difference83.60
Expected score0.12
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.29
Overperformance7.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Newton Stewart

L
Cumbernauld Colts5–2Newton Stewart17 Oct · away
Pick: Cumbernauld Colts 83% · hit
L
Cumnock Juniors5–0Newton Stewart29 Aug · away
Pick: Cumnock Juniors 74% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Renfrew

L
Renfrew4–5Troon FC28 Oct · home
Pick: Troon FC 60% · hit
W
Renfrew2–1Stirling Albion24 Oct · home
Pick: Stirling Albion 56% · missed
L
Renfrew1–5Clydebank29 Aug · home
Pick: Clydebank 79% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Newton Stewart and Renfrew meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Newton Stewart win 33.0%, draw 16.7%, Renfrew win 50.2%. The pick is Renfrew win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.0%. Both teams to score: 58.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.