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Football League - Lowland League Scotland Regular Season 2026

Kilwinning Rangers vs Cumnock Juniors

Kilwinning Rangers Home · Elo 1,529
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cumnock Juniors Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kilwinning Rangers win
Kilwinning Rangers winPick
73.1%
Draw
14.8%
Cumnock Juniors win
12.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.9%
No39.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.9%
Under 2.527.1%

How much we know

Kilwinning Rangers history7 matches
Cumnock Juniors history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.1%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.

Why Kilwinning Rangers are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kilwinning Rangers are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,477. On rating alone Kilwinning Rangers would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Kilwinning Rangers score far more

    2.86 goals a game over 7 matches for Kilwinning Rangers, against 1.33 over 6 for Cumnock Juniors.

  • Kilwinning Rangers concede fewer

    Kilwinning Rangers concede 1.43 a game, Cumnock Juniors 2.50.

  • Kilwinning Rangers games more often go over 2.5 goals

    86% of Kilwinning Rangers matches, against 67% for Cumnock Juniors. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kilwinning Rangers
Cumnock Juniors@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1528.6
ELO
1477.2
7
ELO · Matches
6
1528.6
Current Team ELO
1477.2
1477.2
Current Opponent ELO
1528.6
51.39
Current ELO Difference
-51.39
0.57
Expected score
0.43
7
History Matches
6
0.19
Residual Mean
-0.22
54.98
Overperformance
44.94
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.60
3.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.60
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
7
Matches
6
2.14
PPG
0.50
2.86
Goals for per game
1.33
1.43
Goals against per game
2.50
71.4%
Win rate
0.0%
2.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
1.46
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.98
0.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.34
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
6
2.14
PPG
0.50
71.4%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
0.25
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
3
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.86
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
85.7%
BTTS rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
3.17
Goals for per game
1.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
83.3%
BTTS rate
80.0%
7
History Matches
6
2.86
Goals Mean
1.33
1.46
Goals Std
0.94
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
71.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
57.1%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.43
Goals against per game
2.50
85.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.50
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.60
83.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
7
History Matches
6
1.43
Conceded Mean
2.50
0.73
Conceded Std
1.98
57.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
3.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
6
0.54
Result entropy
0.63
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.34
45.54
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
6
2
Lead Matches
2
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.17
0
Trailing Matches
2
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
1.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
1.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
1
2.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
2
Long Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
6
Matches
5
2.50
PPG
0.60
83.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
6
Current Competition Matches
5
2.50
Current Competition PPG
0.60
1.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.20
2
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO51.39
PPG1.64
GF1.52
GA-1.07
PPG1.90
PPG1.75
PPG1.80
PPG1.64
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches1
Goals Mean1.52
Goals Std0.51
Scored 1+ rate16.7%
Scored 2+ rate38.1%
Scored 3+ rate40.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.52
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-1.07
Conceded Std-1.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Conceded Mean-2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.07
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.25
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score8.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.33
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate100.0%
Lead Points Retention0.83
Trailing Matches-2
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean1.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.67
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.90
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.03
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-0.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.25
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match2.00
Current Team ELO51.39
Current Opponent ELO-51.39
Current ELO Difference102.8
Expected score0.15
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.41
Overperformance10.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.41

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kilwinning Rangers

W
Kilwinning Rangers4–0Dalbeattie Star17 Oct · home
Pick: Kilwinning Rangers 70% · hit
L
Caledonian Braves5–2Kilwinning Rangers29 Aug · away
Pick: Caledonian Braves 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cumnock Juniors

W
Cumnock Juniors4–1Gretna 200831 Oct · home
Pick: Cumnock Juniors 59% · hit
L
Largs Thistle2–1Cumnock Juniors28 Oct · away
Pick: Largs Thistle 68% · hit
W
Gretna 20080–3Cumnock Juniors24 Oct · away
Pick: Gretna 2008 58% · missed
W
Cumnock Juniors5–0Newton Stewart29 Aug · home
Pick: Cumnock Juniors 74% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kilwinning Rangers and Cumnock Juniors meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kilwinning Rangers win 73.1%, draw 14.8%, Cumnock Juniors win 12.0%. The pick is Kilwinning Rangers win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.9%. Both teams to score: 60.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.