Cowdenbeath vs Tranent Juniors
Match result probability Model pick: Tranent Juniors win
Cowdenbeath win
18.0%
Draw
21.4%
Tranent Juniors winPick
60.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.6%
No44.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%
How much we know
Cowdenbeath history50 matches
Tranent Juniors history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Tranent Juniors
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.6%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Tranent Juniors are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Tranent Juniors are rated 157 Elo points higher
Elo 1,603 against 1,446. On rating alone Tranent Juniors would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.62 goals a game over 50 matches for Cowdenbeath, against 1.79 over 53 for Tranent Juniors.
-
Tranent Juniors concede fewer
Cowdenbeath concede 1.68 a game, Tranent Juniors 1.00.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
64% of Cowdenbeath matches, against 57% for Tranent Juniors. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tranent Juniors@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1446.2
ELO
1603.0
50
ELO · Matches
53
1446.2
Current Team ELO
1603.0
1603.0
Current Opponent ELO
1446.2
-156.8
Current ELO Difference
156.8
0.29
Expected score
0.71
50
History Matches
53
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.10
46.13
Overperformance
57.55
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
2.60
Goals against per game
0.20
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.00
1.70
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.70
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals 90
50
Matches
53
1.24
PPG
1.92
34.0%
Win rate
58.5%
22.0%
Draw rate
17.0%
44.0%
Loss rate
24.5%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.6%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.6%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.3%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
24
1.40
PPG
1.92
40.0%
Win rate
58.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
40.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
25
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.79
80.0%
Scoring rate
79.2%
64.0%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.83
84.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
64.0%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
40.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
50
History Matches
53
1.62
Goals Mean
1.79
1.32
Goals Std
1.42
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.8%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
28.3%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.83
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
64.2%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.96
76.0%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.60
Goals against per game
0.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
20.0%
50
History Matches
53
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.35
Conceded Std
1.05
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.6%
24.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
1.60
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
80.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
50
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
0.87
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.86
3.41
Stability score
12.66
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
49
Eligible Matches
52
14
Lead Matches
27
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.91
17
Trailing Matches
9
35.3%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
80.84
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
30
Normal Rest History Matches
33
0.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
17
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.80
Current Competition PPG
2.60
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.20
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.80
Portability PPG Range
1.00
60.18
Portability Score
58.13
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
50
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-156.8
PPG-0.68
GF-0.17
GA0.68
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.52
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate0.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.68
Conceded Std0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate27.4%
Conceded 3+ rate14.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.01
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score-9.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate13.1%
Trailing Win Rate11.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.20
Portability Score2.05
Rest days-3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.07
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-156.8
Current Opponent ELO156.8
Current ELO Difference-313.6
Expected score-0.42
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.16
Overperformance-11.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Cowdenbeath
D
Cowdenbeath2–2Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic17 Oct · home
Pick: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 62% · missed L
Cowdenbeath2–3Celtic II13 Oct · home
Pick: Celtic II 51% · hit L
Linlithgow Rose3–2Cowdenbeath29 Aug · away
Pick: Linlithgow Rose 61% · hit L
Cowdenbeath1–3East Kilbride25 Aug · home
Pick: East Kilbride 56% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Tranent Juniors
W
Tranent Juniors5–1Bo'ness United31 Oct · home
Pick: Tranent Juniors 65% · hit L
Clydebank2–1Tranent Juniors24 Oct · away
Pick: Tranent Juniors 41% · missed L
Tranent Juniors0–4Lochee United17 Oct · home
Pick: Tranent Juniors 70% · missed W
Tranent Juniors4–0Civil Service Strollers29 Aug · home
Pick: Tranent Juniors 69% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Cowdenbeath and Tranent Juniors meet in Football League - Lowland League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Cowdenbeath win 18.0%, draw 21.4%, Tranent Juniors win 60.6%. The pick is Tranent Juniors win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.