ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

Birmingham vs Swansea

Birmingham Home · Elo 1,576
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Swansea Away · Elo 1,513
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Birmingham win
Birmingham winPick
48.9%
Draw
24.6%
Swansea win
26.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Birmingham history92 matches
Swansea history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Birmingham are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Birmingham are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,576 against 1,513. On rating alone Birmingham would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Birmingham score more

    1.41 goals a game over 92 matches for Birmingham, against 1.19 over 80 for Swansea.

  • Defences are close

    Birmingham concede 1.14 a game, Swansea 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Birmingham matches, against 46% for Swansea. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Birmingham
Swansea
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1576.1
ELO
1513.3
92
ELO · Matches
80
1576.1
Current Team ELO
1513.3
1513.3
Current Opponent ELO
1576.1
62.81
Current ELO Difference
-62.81
0.59
Expected score
0.41
92
History Matches
80
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.36
Overperformance
51.60
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.50
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
92
Matches
80
1.72
PPG
1.41
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
21.7%
Draw rate
21.3%
28.3%
Loss rate
38.8%
72.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
48.9%
Over 2.5 rate
46.3%
22.8%
Over 3.5 rate
21.3%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
47
Matches
35
1.91
PPG
1.11
55.3%
Win rate
31.4%
25.5%
Draw rate
17.1%
19.1%
Loss rate
51.4%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
53.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
11.4%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
47
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
1.19
78.3%
Scoring rate
73.8%
51.1%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.79
Goals for per game
0.94
87.2%
Scoring rate
62.9%
59.6%
BTTS rate
45.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
92
History Matches
80
1.41
Goals Mean
1.19
1.17
Goals Std
0.98
78.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
41.3%
Scored 2+ rate
32.5%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.23
68.5%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.34
68.1%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
92
History Matches
80
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.13
Conceded Std
1.06
27.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.3%
14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.0%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
31.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
12.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
92
History Matches
80
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.52
5.75
Stability score
3.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
92
Eligible Matches
80
33
Lead Matches
19
93.9%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.79
27
Trailing Matches
26
22.2%
Non-loss rate
19.2%
3.7%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
92
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.83
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
16
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.94
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
62
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
13
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
10
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.34
1.48
Portability PPG Range
1.00
45.43
Portability Score
59.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
92
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO62.81
PPG0.30
GF0.23
GA-0.08
PPG-1.00
PPG0.80
PPG-0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate9.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate4.5%
Scored 2+ rate8.8%
Scored 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.79
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score2.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate20.3%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate3.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.48
Portability Score-14.10
Rest days-3.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.60
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO62.81
Current Opponent ELO-62.81
Current ELO Difference125.6
Expected score0.18
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Birmingham

W
Birmingham3–0Millwall3 Nov · home
Pick: Birmingham 36% · hit
W
Lincoln1–3Birmingham31 Oct · away
Pick: Birmingham 37% · hit
L
Cardiff1–0Birmingham24 Oct · away
Pick: Cardiff 44% · hit
W
Birmingham3–0QPR17 Oct · home
Pick: Birmingham 46% · hit
W
Birmingham4–0Preston13 Oct · home
Pick: Birmingham 63% · hit

Swansea

L
Portsmouth3–1Swansea3 Nov · away
Pick: Portsmouth 38% · hit
W
Swansea4–0Blackburn31 Oct · home
Pick: Swansea 38% · hit
L
QPR5–0Swansea24 Oct · away
Pick: QPR 47% · hit
L
Swansea0–1West Ham17 Oct · home
Pick: Swansea 52% · missed
W
Millwall0–1Swansea13 Oct · away
Pick: Millwall 61% · missed

About this match

Birmingham and Swansea meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Birmingham win 48.9%, draw 24.6%, Swansea win 26.6%. The pick is Birmingham win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.