ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

Wrexham vs Wolves

Wrexham Home · Elo 1,560
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wolves Away · Elo 1,496
Racecourse Ground, Wrexham Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wrexham win
Wrexham winPick
52.0%
Draw
26.3%
Wolves win
21.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.3%
Under 2.547.7%

How much we know

Wrexham history86 matches
Wolves history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Wrexham are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wrexham are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,560 against 1,496. On rating alone Wrexham would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Wrexham score more

    1.50 goals a game over 86 matches for Wrexham, against 1.21 over 72 for Wolves.

  • Wrexham concede fewer

    Wrexham concede 1.20 a game, Wolves 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Wrexham matches, against 47% for Wolves. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wrexham
Wolves
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1560.2
ELO
1495.5
86
ELO · Matches
72
1560.2
Current Team ELO
1495.5
1495.5
Current Opponent ELO
1560.2
64.70
Current ELO Difference
-64.70
0.59
Expected score
0.41
86
History Matches
72
0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
52.56
Overperformance
50.12
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.60
0.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
0.90
Goals for per game
1.90
1.20
Goals against per game
0.70
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
86
Matches
72
1.65
PPG
1.14
45.3%
Win rate
30.6%
29.1%
Draw rate
22.2%
25.6%
Loss rate
47.2%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
47.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.2%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.6%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
35
1.62
PPG
1.09
42.9%
Win rate
28.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
22.9%
23.8%
Loss rate
48.6%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
11.4%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
42
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.21
83.7%
Scoring rate
69.4%
55.8%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.71
Goals for per game
0.89
92.9%
Scoring rate
62.9%
64.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
72
1.50
Goals Mean
1.21
1.08
Goals Std
1.15
83.7%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
45.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.46
66.3%
Conceding rate
76.4%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.37
69.0%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
86
History Matches
72
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.09
Conceded Std
1.18
39.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.1%
11.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.4%
1.40
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
33.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
86
History Matches
72
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.34
Goal Difference Std
1.79
2.92
Stability score
4.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
72
27
Lead Matches
17
63.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
27
52.6%
Non-loss rate
29.6%
26.3%
Trailing Win Rate
3.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
73.74
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
62
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
15
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
10
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.76
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.92
51.62
Portability Score
39.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
86
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO64.70
PPG0.51
GF0.29
GA-0.26
PPG-1.00
PPG0.53
PPG-2.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate14.3%
Scored 2+ rate12.0%
Scored 3+ rate2.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches14
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.45
Stability score-1.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.43
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate23.0%
Trailing Win Rate22.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score11.78
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.80
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.49
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO64.70
Current Opponent ELO-64.70
Current ELO Difference129.4
Expected score0.18
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.42

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wrexham

L
Sheffield Utd1–0Wrexham30 Oct · away
Pick: Wrexham 37% · missed
L
Blackburn2–0Wrexham24 Oct · away
Pick: Blackburn 42% · hit
W
Wrexham4–1Preston17 Oct · home
Pick: Wrexham 64% · hit
L
Wrexham1–2West Brom13 Oct · home
Pick: Wrexham 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wolves

W
Wolves3–0Cardiff31 Oct · home
Pick: Wolves 42% · hit
W
Wolves1–0Watford24 Oct · home
Pick: Wolves 55% · hit
D
Wolves1–1Portsmouth20 Oct · home
Pick: Wolves 48% · missed
W
Burnley1–2Wolves16 Oct · away
Pick: Wolves 44% · hit
L
Wolves1–3Bolton13 Oct · home
Pick: Wolves 40% · missed

About this match

Wrexham and Wolves meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Racecourse Ground, Wrexham. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Wrexham win 52.0%, draw 26.3%, Wolves win 21.7%. The pick is Wrexham win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.3%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.