ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

Bristol City vs Norwich

Bristol City Home · Elo 1,498
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Norwich Away · Elo 1,542
Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bristol City win
Bristol City winPick
48.3%
Draw
24.8%
Norwich win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%

How much we know

Bristol City history83 matches
Norwich history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bristol City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Norwich are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,542 against 1,498. On rating alone Norwich would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 83 matches for Bristol City, against 1.38 over 84 for Norwich.

  • Defences are close

    Bristol City concede 1.23 a game, Norwich 1.26.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Bristol City matches, against 51% for Norwich. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bristol City
Norwich
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1497.5
ELO
1542.1
83
ELO · Matches
84
1497.5
Current Team ELO
1542.1
1542.1
Current Opponent ELO
1497.5
-44.62
Current ELO Difference
44.62
0.44
Expected score
0.56
83
History Matches
84
0.00
Residual Mean
0.03
49.74
Overperformance
52.62
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
84
1.40
PPG
1.38
37.3%
Win rate
38.1%
27.7%
Draw rate
23.8%
34.9%
Loss rate
38.1%
74.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.8%
44.6%
Over 2.5 rate
51.2%
25.3%
Over 3.5 rate
19.0%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
39
1.63
PPG
1.36
48.8%
Win rate
35.9%
17.1%
Draw rate
28.2%
34.1%
Loss rate
35.9%
75.6%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
51.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
41
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.29
Goals for per game
1.38
66.3%
Scoring rate
76.2%
47.0%
BTTS rate
59.5%
1.56
Goals for per game
1.31
70.7%
Scoring rate
79.5%
43.9%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
83
History Matches
84
1.29
Goals Mean
1.38
1.26
Goals Std
1.19
66.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.2%
39.8%
Scored 2+ rate
38.1%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.26
71.1%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.23
68.3%
Conceding rate
74.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
83
History Matches
84
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.14
Conceded Std
1.05
33.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.1%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
33.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
33.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.8%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
29.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
28.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
84
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.63
0.70
Stability score
1.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
84
26
Lead Matches
28
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.77
28
Trailing Matches
23
28.6%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
10.7%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
73.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.85
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.70
50
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
19
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.21
Portability PPG Range
0.94
50.02
Portability Score
62.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-44.62
PPG0.02
GF-0.09
GA-0.03
PPG0.50
PPG0.28
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate9.9%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate8.8%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate1.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Conceded 2+ rate0.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score-1.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate9.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate6.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-12.43
Rest days3.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.15
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-44.62
Current Opponent ELO44.62
Current ELO Difference-89.23
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bristol City

W
Bolton2–3Bristol City31 Oct · away
Pick: Bolton 59% · missed
D
Stoke City0–0Bristol City24 Oct · away
Pick: Stoke City 36% · missed
L
Bristol City0–1Sheffield Utd17 Oct · home
Pick: Sheffield Utd 42% · hit
L
Bristol City0–1Blackburn13 Oct · home
Pick: Blackburn 39% · hit
W
Preston1–3Bristol City1 Sep · away
Pick: Bristol City 38% · hit

Norwich

W
Derby0–4Norwich3 Nov · away
Pick: Derby 46% · missed
W
Norwich3–2Watford31 Oct · home
Pick: Norwich 45% · hit
W
Charlton1–3Norwich24 Oct · away
Pick: Charlton 50% · missed
L
Norwich0–1Portsmouth17 Oct · home
Pick: Norwich 40% · missed
L
Norwich0–1Southampton14 Oct · home
Pick: Southampton 43% · hit

About this match

Bristol City and Norwich meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Bristol City win 48.3%, draw 24.8%, Norwich win 26.9%. The pick is Bristol City win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.