ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

Blackburn vs West Ham

Blackburn Home · Elo 1,521
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
West Ham Away · Elo 1,529
Ewood Park, Blackburn Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Blackburn win
Blackburn winPick
51.2%
Draw
25.8%
West Ham win
22.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Blackburn history80 matches
West Ham history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Blackburn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,521 against 1,529. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • West Ham score more

    1.14 goals a game over 80 matches for Blackburn, against 1.36 over 70 for West Ham.

  • Blackburn concede fewer

    Blackburn concede 1.16 a game, West Ham 1.46.

  • West Ham games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Blackburn matches, against 54% for West Ham. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Blackburn
West Ham
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.0
ELO
1529.1
80
ELO · Matches
70
1521.0
Current Team ELO
1529.1
1529.1
Current Opponent ELO
1521.0
-8.08
Current ELO Difference
8.08
0.49
Expected score
0.51
80
History Matches
70
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
50.38
Overperformance
51.20
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.70
Goals for per game
2.10
1.00
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
80
Matches
70
1.34
PPG
1.14
36.3%
Win rate
27.1%
25.0%
Draw rate
32.9%
38.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.3%
46.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
15.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
38
1.22
PPG
1.18
30.6%
Win rate
28.9%
30.6%
Draw rate
31.6%
38.9%
Loss rate
39.5%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
36
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.14
Goals for per game
1.36
71.3%
Scoring rate
74.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.34
77.8%
Scoring rate
73.7%
61.1%
BTTS rate
55.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
70
1.14
Goals Mean
1.36
1.05
Goals Std
1.15
71.3%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
28.8%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
8.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.34
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.16
Goals against per game
1.46
71.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.45
77.8%
Conceding rate
73.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
80
History Matches
70
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.46
0.97
Conceded Std
1.13
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
28.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
80
History Matches
70
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.75
1.53
Stability score
1.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
70
20
Lead Matches
23
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
56.5%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.65
26
Trailing Matches
23
26.9%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
11.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
54
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
15
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
9
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.20
1.27
Portability PPG Range
0.50
51.72
Portability Score
70.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
80
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-8.08
PPG0.19
GF-0.22
GA-0.29
PPG1.50
PPG0.04
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate3.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.29
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches10
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score0.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate18.5%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate5.2%
Trailing Win Rate11.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.77
Portability Score-19.21
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match0.80
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO-8.08
Current Opponent ELO8.08
Current ELO Difference-16.16
Expected score-0.02
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Blackburn

L
Blackburn1–2Stoke City3 Nov · home
Pick: Blackburn 53% · missed
L
Swansea4–0Blackburn31 Oct · away
Pick: Swansea 38% · hit
W
Blackburn2–0Wrexham24 Oct · home
Pick: Blackburn 42% · hit
L
West Brom3–2Blackburn17 Oct · away
Pick: West Brom 48% · hit
W
Bristol City0–1Blackburn13 Oct · away
Pick: Blackburn 39% · hit

West Ham

L
West Ham1–3West Brom31 Oct · home
Pick: West Brom 36% · hit
L
West Ham2–3Southampton24 Oct · home
Pick: Southampton 39% · hit
W
Swansea0–1West Ham17 Oct · away
Pick: Swansea 52% · missed
W
Lincoln0–6West Ham14 Oct · away
Pick: Lincoln 46% · missed
W
West Ham4–2Wolves1 Sep · home
Pick: West Ham 38% · hit

About this match

Blackburn and West Ham meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Ewood Park, Blackburn. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Blackburn win 51.2%, draw 25.8%, West Ham win 22.9%. The pick is Blackburn win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.