ScoreProb
Championship England Round 15 2026

Charlton vs Sheffield Utd

Charlton Home · Elo 1,537
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sheffield Utd Away · Elo 1,569
The Valley, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Charlton win
Charlton winPick
44.5%
Draw
26.8%
Sheffield Utd win
28.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%

How much we know

Charlton history85 matches
Sheffield Utd history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Charlton are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sheffield Utd are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,537. On rating alone Sheffield Utd would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Sheffield Utd score more

    1.26 goals a game over 85 matches for Charlton, against 1.56 over 81 for Sheffield Utd.

  • Defences are close

    Charlton concede 1.11 a game, Sheffield Utd 1.17.

  • Sheffield Utd games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Charlton matches, against 58% for Sheffield Utd. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Charlton
Sheffield Utd
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.9
ELO
1568.7
85
ELO · Matches
81
1536.9
Current Team ELO
1568.7
1568.7
Current Opponent ELO
1536.9
-31.80
Current ELO Difference
31.80
0.45
Expected score
0.55
85
History Matches
81
0.01
Residual Mean
0.03
50.82
Overperformance
52.68
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
81
1.61
PPG
1.59
45.9%
Win rate
48.1%
23.5%
Draw rate
14.8%
30.6%
Loss rate
37.0%
70.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.8%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.0%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
44
1.87
PPG
1.68
57.9%
Win rate
52.3%
13.2%
Draw rate
11.4%
28.9%
Loss rate
36.4%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.9%
52.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
38
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.56
80.0%
Scoring rate
79.0%
48.2%
BTTS rate
54.3%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.45
89.5%
Scoring rate
72.7%
52.6%
BTTS rate
43.2%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
85
History Matches
81
1.26
Goals Mean
1.56
0.96
Goals Std
1.19
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
79.0%
31.8%
Scored 2+ rate
45.7%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
25.9%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.17
63.5%
Conceding rate
69.1%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.05
60.5%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
85
History Matches
81
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.17
1.18
Conceded Std
1.17
27.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.2%
14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.6%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.05
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.0%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.0%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
81
0.97
Result entropy
0.91
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.73
3.49
Stability score
8.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
85
Eligible Matches
81
25
Lead Matches
30
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.73
22
Trailing Matches
20
22.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
85
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
63
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
14
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.62
1.35
Portability PPG Range
1.70
48.77
Portability Score
44.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-31.80
PPG0.02
GF-0.30
GA-0.07
PPG2.00
PPG0.19
PPG0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std-0.23
Scored 1+ rate1.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.38
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.59
History Matches4
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-5.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate10.7%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score4.08
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO-31.80
Current Opponent ELO31.80
Current ELO Difference-63.61
Expected score-0.09
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Charlton

L
Charlton0–1Bolton3 Nov · home
Pick: Charlton 43% · missed
L
Middlesbrough3–0Charlton31 Oct · away
Pick: Charlton 38% · missed
L
Charlton1–3Norwich24 Oct · home
Pick: Charlton 50% · missed
L
Watford2–0Charlton17 Oct · away
Pick: Charlton 46% · missed
D
Burnley2–2Charlton13 Oct · away
Pick: Charlton 49% · missed

Sheffield Utd

W
Preston2–3Sheffield Utd3 Nov · away
Pick: Sheffield Utd 52% · hit
W
Sheffield Utd1–0Wrexham30 Oct · home
Pick: Wrexham 37% · missed
D
Sheffield Utd1–1Derby24 Oct · home
Pick: Sheffield Utd 51% · missed
W
Bristol City0–1Sheffield Utd17 Oct · away
Pick: Sheffield Utd 42% · hit
L
Portsmouth3–2Sheffield Utd14 Oct · away
Pick: Sheffield Utd 37% · missed

About this match

Charlton and Sheffield Utd meet in Championship on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at The Valley, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Charlton win 44.5%, draw 26.8%, Sheffield Utd win 28.7%. The pick is Charlton win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.7%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.