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2. SNL Slovenia Round 15 2026

Bistrica vs Beltinci

Bistrica Home · Elo 1,508
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Beltinci Away · Elo 1,562
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Beltinci win
Bistrica win
26.4%
Draw
19.8%
Beltinci winPick
53.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.1%
Under 2.532.9%

How much we know

Bistrica history56 matches
Beltinci history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Beltinci are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Beltinci are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,508. On rating alone Beltinci would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.09 goals a game over 56 matches for Bistrica, against 1.98 over 62 for Beltinci.

  • Defences are close

    Bistrica concede 1.38 a game, Beltinci 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Bistrica matches, against 61% for Beltinci. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bistrica
Beltinci@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1507.8
ELO
1562.3
56
ELO · Matches
62
1507.8
Current Team ELO
1562.3
1562.3
Current Opponent ELO
1507.8
-54.45
Current ELO Difference
54.45
0.42
Expected score
0.58
56
History Matches
62
0.00
Residual Mean
0.06
49.94
Overperformance
54.57
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
3.40
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
2.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
3.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
62
1.52
PPG
1.71
42.9%
Win rate
50.0%
23.2%
Draw rate
21.0%
33.9%
Loss rate
29.0%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.3%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
3.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.77
PPG
1.81
53.8%
Win rate
55.6%
15.4%
Draw rate
14.8%
30.8%
Loss rate
29.6%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
42.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
4.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.09
Goals for per game
1.98
71.4%
Scoring rate
88.7%
46.4%
BTTS rate
56.5%
2.58
Goals for per game
1.63
76.9%
Scoring rate
92.6%
46.2%
BTTS rate
51.9%
1.33
Goals for per game
2.33
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
56
History Matches
62
2.09
Goals Mean
1.98
2.74
Goals Std
1.68
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
88.7%
53.6%
Scored 2+ rate
53.2%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
25.8%
2.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.63
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.27
64.3%
Conceding rate
61.3%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.22
65.4%
Conceding rate
55.6%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
56
History Matches
62
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.42
Conceded Std
1.35
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.5%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.0%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.22
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
7.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
7.4%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
38.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
62
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
3.23
Goal Difference Std
2.38
2.71
Stability score
5.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
62
19
Lead Matches
24
89.5%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.90
14
Trailing Matches
17
7.1%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.98
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.92
Rest days
82.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
32
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
20
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
3.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.70
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.86
Portability PPG Range
1.07
41.56
Portability Score
52.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-54.45
PPG-0.19
GF0.11
GA0.10
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate17.3%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate15.7%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std1.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.17
Scored 2+ rate0.3%
Scored 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.95
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate7.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.03
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.85
Stability score-3.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate2.0%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.79
Portability Score-10.94
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO-54.45
Current Opponent ELO54.45
Current ELO Difference-108.9
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bistrica

L
Dekani1–0Bistrica6 Nov · away
Pick: Dekani 51% · hit
W
Bistrica2–0Krško1 Nov · home
Pick: Bistrica 65% · hit
W
Jesenice1–3Bistrica28 Oct · away
Pick: Jesenice 41% · missed
W
Bistrica4–3Bilje23 Oct · home
Pick: Bistrica 59% · hit
W
Bistrica1–0Primorje17 Oct · home
Pick: Bistrica 56% · hit

Beltinci

W
Brežice0–6Beltinci2 Nov · away
Pick: Beltinci 57% · hit
L
Beltinci3–4Triglav28 Oct · home
Pick: Beltinci 51% · missed
W
Tromejnik Montpreis0–5Beltinci25 Oct · away
Pick: Beltinci 59% · hit
W
Dren Vrhnika1–2Beltinci18 Oct · away
Pick: Beltinci 50% · hit
W
Ilirija2–4Beltinci4 Oct · away
Pick: Ilirija 55% · missed

About this match

Bistrica and Beltinci meet in 2. SNL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bistrica win 26.4%, draw 19.8%, Beltinci win 53.8%. The pick is Beltinci win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.1%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.