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2. SNL Slovenia Round 15 2026

Dren Vrhnika vs Tabor Sežana

Dren Vrhnika Home · Elo 1,593
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tabor Sežana Away · Elo 1,547
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tabor Sežana win
Dren Vrhnika win
22.9%
Draw
19.8%
Tabor Sežana winPick
57.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%

How much we know

Dren Vrhnika history23 matches
Tabor Sežana history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Tabor Sežana are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dren Vrhnika are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,547. On rating alone Dren Vrhnika would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Dren Vrhnika score far more

    2.43 goals a game over 23 matches for Dren Vrhnika, against 1.47 over 49 for Tabor Sežana.

  • Dren Vrhnika concede fewer

    Dren Vrhnika concede 0.74 a game, Tabor Sežana 1.14.

  • Dren Vrhnika games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Dren Vrhnika matches, against 45% for Tabor Sežana. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dren Vrhnika
Tabor Sežana@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1593.1
ELO
1546.8
23
ELO · Matches
49
1593.1
Current Team ELO
1546.8
1546.8
Current Opponent ELO
1593.1
46.36
Current ELO Difference
-46.36
0.57
Expected score
0.43
23
History Matches
49
0.20
Residual Mean
0.04
60.92
Overperformance
52.90
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.90
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.75
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.77
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
49
2.22
PPG
1.65
69.6%
Win rate
46.9%
13.0%
Draw rate
24.5%
17.4%
Loss rate
28.6%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
44.9%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
24.5%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
26
2.33
PPG
1.58
75.0%
Win rate
42.3%
8.3%
Draw rate
30.8%
16.7%
Loss rate
26.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
12
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.43
Goals for per game
1.47
87.0%
Scoring rate
81.6%
43.5%
BTTS rate
46.9%
2.42
Goals for per game
1.73
83.3%
Scoring rate
88.5%
33.3%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.33
Goals for per game
3.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
23
History Matches
49
2.43
Goals Mean
1.47
1.86
Goals Std
1.16
87.0%
Scored 1+ rate
81.6%
65.2%
Scored 2+ rate
40.8%
34.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
2.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.74
Goals against per game
1.14
47.8%
Conceding rate
57.1%
0.58
Goals against per game
1.35
41.7%
Conceding rate
61.5%
0.67
Goals against per game
0.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
0.0%
23
History Matches
49
0.74
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.94
Conceded Std
1.32
17.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
0.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
58.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
52.2%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
49
0.75
Result entropy
0.96
2.22
Goal Difference Std
1.80
25.15
Stability score
3.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
23
Eligible Matches
49
12
Lead Matches
18
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.80
3
Trailing Matches
12
66.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
23
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.92
Rest days
82.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
13
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.72
9
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
3.00
66.7%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.33
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.21
Portability PPG Range
1.43
82.61
Portability Score
43.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO46.36
PPG0.56
GF0.97
GA-0.40
PPG-1.00
PPG0.76
PPG0.00
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate19.9%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches-26
Goals Mean0.97
Goals Std0.70
Scored 1+ rate5.3%
Scored 2+ rate24.4%
Scored 3+ rate16.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches-26
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches-26
Result entropy-0.21
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score21.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches-26
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate27.8%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate41.7%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-26
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.55
Portability PPG Range-1.22
Portability Score39.21
Rest days1.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.51
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.71
Current Team ELO46.36
Current Opponent ELO-46.36
Current ELO Difference92.71
Expected score0.13
History Matches-26
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance8.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dren Vrhnika

L
Bilje3–0Dren Vrhnika7 Nov · away
Pick: Dren Vrhnika 49% · missed
L
Dren Vrhnika1–4Ilirija31 Oct · home
Pick: Ilirija 47% · hit
L
Krka3–0Dren Vrhnika27 Oct · away
Pick: Dren Vrhnika 58% · missed
L
Dren Vrhnika1–2Beltinci18 Oct · home
Pick: Beltinci 50% · hit
L
Bistrica2–0Dren Vrhnika29 Aug · away
Pick: Dren Vrhnika 53% · missed

Tabor Sežana

W
Tabor Sežana1–0Primorje7 Nov · home
Pick: Tabor Sežana 75% · hit
L
Bilje3–2Tabor Sežana31 Oct · away
Pick: Tabor Sežana 53% · missed
W
Tabor Sežana2–0Slovan Ljubljana27 Oct · home
Pick: Tabor Sežana 63% · hit
W
Tabor Sežana1–0Koper23 Oct · home
Pick: Koper 50% · missed
W
Ilirija0–1Tabor Sežana16 Oct · away
Pick: Tabor Sežana 41% · hit

About this match

Dren Vrhnika and Tabor Sežana meet in 2. SNL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Dren Vrhnika win 22.9%, draw 19.8%, Tabor Sežana win 57.2%. The pick is Tabor Sežana win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.