ScoreProb
Log in
2. SNL Slovenia Round 15 2026

Brežice vs Ilirija

Brežice Home · Elo 1,541
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ilirija Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ilirija win
Brežice win
29.5%
Draw
20.7%
Ilirija winPick
49.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%

How much we know

Brežice history21 matches
Ilirija history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Ilirija are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brežice are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,448. On rating alone Brežice would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Brežice score more

    1.67 goals a game over 21 matches for Brežice, against 1.26 over 50 for Ilirija.

  • Brežice concede fewer

    Brežice concede 1.29 a game, Ilirija 1.62.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Brežice matches, against 54% for Ilirija. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brežice
Ilirija@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.0
ELO
1448.2
21
ELO · Matches
50
1541.0
Current Team ELO
1448.2
1448.2
Current Opponent ELO
1541.0
92.79
Current ELO Difference
-92.79
0.63
Expected score
0.37
21
History Matches
50
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.05
54.77
Overperformance
46.51
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.78
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
21
Matches
50
1.76
PPG
0.96
52.4%
Win rate
22.0%
19.0%
Draw rate
30.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
48.0%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.0%
61.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
25
2.00
PPG
0.88
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
28.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
52.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
10
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.26
81.0%
Scoring rate
82.0%
52.4%
BTTS rate
64.0%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
84.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
68.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
21
History Matches
50
1.67
Goals Mean
1.26
1.39
Goals Std
1.05
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.0%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
6.0%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.62
66.7%
Conceding rate
78.0%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.64
50.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
21
History Matches
50
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.42
Conceded Std
1.26
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.0%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
21
History Matches
50
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
2.34
Goal Difference Std
1.73
7.84
Stability score
4.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
50
6
Lead Matches
13
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
38.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.54
6
Trailing Matches
23
33.3%
Non-loss rate
17.4%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
90.96
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
7
Normal Rest History Matches
29
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
13
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
3
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
1.00
—
Portability PPG Range
2.14
—
Portability Score
33.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
21
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO92.79
PPG0.80
GF0.41
GA-0.33
PPG-3.00
PPG1.12
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-29
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate30.0%
Failed-to-score rate4.0%
History Matches-29
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate17.6%
Scored 3+ rate17.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches-29
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches-29
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.61
Stability score3.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches-30
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate44.9%
Lead Points Retention0.29
Trailing Matches-17
Non-loss rate15.9%
Trailing Win Rate12.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-30
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days6.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.93
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.77
Current Team ELO92.79
Current Opponent ELO-92.79
Current ELO Difference185.6
Expected score0.26
History Matches-29
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance8.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brežice

L
Brežice0–6Beltinci2 Nov · home
Pick: Beltinci 57% · hit
D
Dekani0–0Brežice27 Oct · away
Pick: Dekani 62% · missed
W
Brežice2–1Krško18 Oct · home
Pick: Brežice 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ilirija

L
Ilirija1–4Triglav6 Nov · home
Pick: Ilirija 44% · missed
W
Dren Vrhnika1–4Ilirija31 Oct · away
Pick: Ilirija 47% · hit
W
Ilirija3–0Bilje27 Oct · home
Pick: Ilirija 63% · hit
L
Ilirija0–1Tabor Sežana16 Oct · home
Pick: Tabor Sežana 41% · hit
L
Ilirija2–4Beltinci4 Oct · home
Pick: Ilirija 55% · missed

About this match

Brežice and Ilirija meet in 2. SNL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Brežice win 29.5%, draw 20.7%, Ilirija win 49.8%. The pick is Ilirija win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.