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2. SNL Slovenia Round 15 2026

Rudar vs Dekani

Rudar Home · Elo 1,479
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dekani Away · Elo 1,432
Mestni stadion ob jezeru, Velenje Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rudar win
Rudar winPick
40.1%
Draw
25.7%
Dekani win
34.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%
No46.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%

How much we know

Rudar history49 matches
Dekani history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Rudar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rudar are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,479 against 1,432. On rating alone Rudar would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.33 goals a game over 49 matches for Rudar, against 1.25 over 53 for Dekani.

  • Rudar concede fewer

    Rudar concede 1.24 a game, Dekani 1.79.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Rudar matches, against 57% for Dekani. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rudar
Dekani@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.1
ELO
1432.0
49
ELO · Matches
53
1479.1
Current Team ELO
1432.0
1432.0
Current Opponent ELO
1479.1
47.10
Current ELO Difference
-47.10
0.57
Expected score
0.43
49
History Matches
53
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
48.11
Overperformance
45.65
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.30
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.80
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
53
1.27
PPG
1.02
32.7%
Win rate
26.4%
28.6%
Draw rate
22.6%
38.8%
Loss rate
50.9%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
56.6%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
26
1.35
PPG
0.81
30.4%
Win rate
15.4%
43.5%
Draw rate
34.6%
26.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
23
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.25
61.2%
Scoring rate
62.3%
38.8%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.52
Goals for per game
0.81
60.9%
Scoring rate
50.0%
39.1%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
33.3%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
49
History Matches
53
1.33
Goals Mean
1.25
1.39
Goals Std
1.24
61.2%
Scored 1+ rate
62.3%
40.8%
Scored 2+ rate
39.6%
18.4%
Scored 3+ rate
17.0%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.79
63.3%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.69
56.5%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
49
History Matches
53
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.79
1.20
Conceded Std
1.58
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.9%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.8%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.69
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
38.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
38.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
43.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
39.1%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
53
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
2.05
Goal Difference Std
2.04
0.72
Stability score
6.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
53
16
Lead Matches
12
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.72
14
Trailing Matches
24
14.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
4.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.00
Rest days
85.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.93
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.36
Portability PPG Range
2.33
77.15
Portability Score
39.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO47.10
PPG0.25
GF0.08
GA-0.55
PPG0.00
PPG0.54
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate24.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate1.2%
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.55
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-5.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate8.3%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate3.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.60
Portability PPG Range-1.98
Portability Score37.20
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO47.10
Current Opponent ELO-47.10
Current ELO Difference94.21
Expected score0.13
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rudar

W
Krško1–3Rudar7 Nov · away
Pick: Rudar 54% · hit
D
Rudar2–2Jesenice31 Oct · home
Pick: Rudar 57% · missed
L
Primorje1–0Rudar27 Oct · away
Pick: Rudar 41% · missed
W
Rudar2–0Slovan Ljubljana17 Oct · home
Pick: Rudar 45% · hit
L
Bistrica3–1Rudar4 Oct · away
Pick: Bistrica 43% · hit

Dekani

W
Dekani1–0Bistrica6 Nov · home
Pick: Dekani 51% · hit
L
Dravinja1–0Dekani31 Oct · away
Pick: Dekani 39% · missed
D
Dekani0–0Brežice27 Oct · home
Pick: Dekani 62% · missed
L
Triglav1–0Dekani16 Oct · away
Pick: Triglav 58% · hit
L
Bilje2–0Dekani6 Oct · away
Pick: Bilje 39% · hit

About this match

Rudar and Dekani meet in 2. SNL on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Mestni stadion ob jezeru, Velenje. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Rudar win 40.1%, draw 25.7%, Dekani win 34.2%. The pick is Rudar win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.