ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Borussia M'bach U19 vs Alemannia Aachen U19

Borussia M'bach U19 Home · Elo 1,579
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alemannia Aachen U19 Away · Elo 1,475
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Borussia M'bach U19 win
Borussia M'bach U19 winPick
64.8%
Draw
17.5%
Alemannia Aachen U19 win
17.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.1%
No31.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.1%
Under 2.523.9%

How much we know

Borussia M'bach U19 history44 matches
Alemannia Aachen U19 history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Borussia M'bach U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Borussia M'bach U19 are rated 104 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,579 against 1,475. On rating alone Borussia M'bach U19 would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Borussia M'bach U19 score far more

    2.52 goals a game over 44 matches for Borussia M'bach U19, against 1.47 over 43 for Alemannia Aachen U19.

  • Defences are close

    Borussia M'bach U19 concede 1.73 a game, Alemannia Aachen U19 1.77.

  • Borussia M'bach U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    84% of Borussia M'bach U19 matches, against 63% for Alemannia Aachen U19. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Borussia M'bach U19
Alemannia Aachen U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1578.9
ELO
1475.2
44
ELO · Matches
43
1578.9
Current Team ELO
1475.2
1475.2
Current Opponent ELO
1578.9
103.7
Current ELO Difference
-103.7
0.64
Expected score
0.36
44
History Matches
43
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.03
56.69
Overperformance
47.89
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
3.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
2.50
Goals for per game
1.60
2.10
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.60
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.99
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
43
1.75
PPG
1.26
50.0%
Win rate
32.6%
25.0%
Draw rate
27.9%
25.0%
Loss rate
39.5%
97.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
84.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.8%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
44.2%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
22
1.67
PPG
1.14
45.8%
Win rate
22.7%
29.2%
Draw rate
45.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
31.8%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
24
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.52
Goals for per game
1.47
93.2%
Scoring rate
81.4%
77.3%
BTTS rate
60.5%
2.50
Goals for per game
1.50
87.5%
Scoring rate
81.8%
66.7%
BTTS rate
72.7%
3.25
Goals for per game
1.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
43
2.52
Goals Mean
1.47
1.60
Goals Std
1.15
93.2%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
70.5%
Scored 2+ rate
44.2%
43.2%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
2.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.73
Goals against per game
1.77
84.1%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.46
Goals against per game
1.95
79.2%
Conceding rate
86.4%
2.50
Goals against per game
3.33
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
43
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.77
1.27
Conceded Std
1.43
52.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.2%
22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.6%
1.46
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
6.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
15.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
43
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.99
5.36
Stability score
0.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
43
21
Lead Matches
10
76.2%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.67
10
Trailing Matches
18
30.0%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
1.32
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
20
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.75
PPG
0.33
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.75
Current Competition PPG
0.33
0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.38
Portability PPG Range
1.51
77.64
Portability Score
44.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO103.7
PPG0.49
GF1.06
GA-0.04
PPG1.42
PPG0.53
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches1
Goals Mean1.06
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate11.8%
Scored 2+ rate26.3%
Scored 3+ rate29.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate1.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score4.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.21
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate16.2%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate2.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.42
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.75
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.47
Portability PPG Range-1.13
Portability Score32.90
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.78
Current Team ELO103.7
Current Opponent ELO-103.7
Current ELO Difference207.4
Expected score0.29
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance8.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Borussia M'bach U19

L
Bayer Leverkusen U192–1Borussia M'bach U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen U19 66% · hit
L
Borussia M'bach U191–2Viktoria Köln U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia M'bach U19 49% · missed
W
Saarbrücken U191–3Borussia M'bach U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia M'bach U19 83% · hit
W
Chemnitzer FC U190–2Borussia M'bach U1930 Aug · away
Pick: Chemnitzer FC U19 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Alemannia Aachen U19

W
Alemannia Aachen U195–1Elversberg U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Alemannia Aachen U19 49% · hit
D
Alemannia Aachen U190–0Bochum U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Bochum U19 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Borussia M'bach U19 and Alemannia Aachen U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Borussia M'bach U19 win 64.8%, draw 17.5%, Alemannia Aachen U19 win 17.7%. The pick is Borussia M'bach U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.1%. Both teams to score: 68.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.