ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

MSV Duisburg U19 vs Rot-Weiss Essen U19

MSV Duisburg U19 Home · Elo 1,549
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 Away · Elo 1,464
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: MSV Duisburg U19 win
MSV Duisburg U19 winPick
60.7%
Draw
20.3%
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 win
18.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.7%
Under 2.530.3%

How much we know

MSV Duisburg U19 history39 matches
Rot-Weiss Essen U19 history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why MSV Duisburg U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • MSV Duisburg U19 are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,549 against 1,464. On rating alone MSV Duisburg U19 would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.67 goals a game over 39 matches for MSV Duisburg U19, against 1.79 over 42 for Rot-Weiss Essen U19.

  • MSV Duisburg U19 concede fewer

    MSV Duisburg U19 concede 1.46 a game, Rot-Weiss Essen U19 1.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of MSV Duisburg U19 matches, against 67% for Rot-Weiss Essen U19. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
MSV Duisburg U19
Rot-Weiss Essen U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1548.7
ELO
1464.3
39
ELO · Matches
42
1548.7
Current Team ELO
1464.3
1464.3
Current Opponent ELO
1548.7
84.42
Current ELO Difference
-84.42
0.62
Expected score
0.38
39
History Matches
42
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.05
53.67
Overperformance
46.93
0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.00
3.40
Goals for per game
1.60
0.20
Goals against per game
3.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.20
2.70
Goals for per game
2.00
0.60
Goals against per game
2.40
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.96
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
42
1.51
PPG
1.14
41.0%
Win rate
31.0%
28.2%
Draw rate
21.4%
30.8%
Loss rate
47.6%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
59.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
35.9%
Over 3.5 rate
45.2%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
22
1.72
PPG
0.77
50.0%
Win rate
18.2%
22.2%
Draw rate
22.7%
27.8%
Loss rate
59.1%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
38.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
18
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.79
74.4%
Scoring rate
71.4%
56.4%
BTTS rate
52.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.14
83.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
61.1%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
39
History Matches
42
1.67
Goals Mean
1.79
1.65
Goals Std
2.05
74.4%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
43.6%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
25.6%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
1.98
74.4%
Conceding rate
73.8%
1.11
Goals against per game
2.32
72.2%
Conceding rate
86.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
42
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.98
1.57
Conceded Std
1.72
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.8%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
38.1%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
2.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
25.6%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
42
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
2.49
Goal Difference Std
2.91
1.22
Stability score
4.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
40
12
Lead Matches
13
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.79
14
Trailing Matches
12
42.9%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
17
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.27
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
1.25
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.25
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.20
0.36
Portability PPG Range
0.50
73.60
Portability Score
71.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO84.42
PPG0.37
GF-0.12
GA-0.51
PPG0.75
PPG0.95
PPG1.60
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate2.9%
Scored 2+ rate0.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.21
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-1.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.30
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score-3.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate14.7%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate26.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score2.59
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.54
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO84.42
Current Opponent ELO-84.42
Current ELO Difference168.8
Expected score0.24
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance6.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

MSV Duisburg U19

L
Borussia Dortmund U192–1MSV Duisburg U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 55% · hit
W
MSV Duisburg U193–1Schalke 04 U1918 Oct · home
Pick: MSV Duisburg U19 50% · hit
W
MSV Duisburg U193–0Energie Cottbus U1930 Aug · home
Pick: MSV Duisburg U19 45% · hit
D
MSV Duisburg U191–1Borussia Dortmund U1926 Aug · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund U19 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rot-Weiss Essen U19

D
Rot-Weiss Essen U191–1Schalke 04 U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Schalke 04 U19 40% · missed
W
RW Oberhausen U191–3Rot-Weiss Essen U1924 Oct · away
Pick: RW Oberhausen U19 40% · missed
L
Rot-Weiss Essen U191–4Fortuna Düsseldorf U1918 Oct · home
Pick: Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

MSV Duisburg U19 and Rot-Weiss Essen U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: MSV Duisburg U19 win 60.7%, draw 20.3%, Rot-Weiss Essen U19 win 18.9%. The pick is MSV Duisburg U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.7%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.