ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Freiburg U19 vs Ulm U19

Freiburg U19 Home · Elo 1,554
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ulm U19 Away · Elo 1,439
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Freiburg U19 win
Freiburg U19 winPick
71.8%
Draw
15.8%
Ulm U19 win
12.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.4%
No40.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.576.9%
Under 2.523.1%

How much we know

Freiburg U19 history44 matches
Ulm U19 history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (71.8%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Freiburg U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Freiburg U19 are rated 115 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,439. On rating alone Freiburg U19 would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Freiburg U19 score more

    2.20 goals a game over 44 matches for Freiburg U19, against 1.69 over 39 for Ulm U19.

  • Freiburg U19 concede fewer

    Freiburg U19 concede 1.70 a game, Ulm U19 2.69.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    75% of Freiburg U19 matches, against 82% for Ulm U19. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Freiburg U19
Ulm U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.9
ELO
1439.2
44
ELO · Matches
39
1553.9
Current Team ELO
1439.2
1439.2
Current Opponent ELO
1553.9
114.7
Current ELO Difference
-114.7
0.66
Expected score
0.34
44
History Matches
39
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.08
53.55
Overperformance
44.88
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
2.60
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.50
2.10
Goals for per game
1.30
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
70.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
39
1.73
PPG
0.95
54.5%
Win rate
28.2%
9.1%
Draw rate
10.3%
36.4%
Loss rate
61.5%
93.2%
Over 1.5 rate
94.9%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
82.1%
56.8%
Over 3.5 rate
64.1%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
20
1.70
PPG
0.60
55.0%
Win rate
15.0%
5.0%
Draw rate
15.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
70.0%
95.0%
Over 1.5 rate
95.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
55.0%
Over 3.5 rate
70.0%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
20
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.20
Goals for per game
1.69
95.5%
Scoring rate
79.5%
63.6%
BTTS rate
71.8%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.10
95.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
39
2.20
Goals Mean
1.69
1.27
Goals Std
1.64
95.5%
Scored 1+ rate
79.5%
72.7%
Scored 2+ rate
41.0%
27.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.5%
2.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
2.69
68.2%
Conceding rate
89.7%
1.70
Goals against per game
3.10
65.0%
Conceding rate
85.0%
0.75
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
39
1.70
Conceded Mean
2.69
1.47
Conceded Std
1.76
56.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
71.8%
29.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
56.4%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
3.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
5.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.5%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
5.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
39
0.83
Result entropy
0.81
2.14
Goal Difference Std
2.62
16.58
Stability score
19.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
39
24
Lead Matches
12
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.83
13
Trailing Matches
18
7.7%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
1.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
1.10
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
15
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.74
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
0.00
75.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
7
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.27
57.16
Portability Score
48.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO114.7
PPG0.78
GF0.51
GA-0.99
PPG2.50
PPG1.10
PPG2.60
PPG1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.51
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate16.0%
Scored 2+ rate31.7%
Scored 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.99
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate21.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches5
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.48
Stability score-2.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.23
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.81
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score8.25
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.80
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.80
Current Team ELO114.7
Current Opponent ELO-114.7
Current ELO Difference229.4
Expected score0.32
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance8.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Freiburg U19

W
Freiburg U194–1Karlsruher SC U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Freiburg U19 65% · hit
W
Sandhausen U191–4Freiburg U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Freiburg U19 62% · hit
W
Freiburg U192–0Augsburg U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Freiburg U19 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ulm U19

D
Ulm U191–1Augsburg U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Augsburg U19 54% · missed
L
Heidenheim U197–0Ulm U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Heidenheim U19 78% · hit
D
Ulm U191–1Hoffenheim U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Hoffenheim U19 75% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Freiburg U19 and Ulm U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Freiburg U19 win 71.8%, draw 15.8%, Ulm U19 win 12.3%. The pick is Freiburg U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.9%. Both teams to score: 59.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.