ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Ingolstadt U19 vs Bayern München U19

Ingolstadt U19 Home · Elo 1,632
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bayern München U19 Away · Elo 1,575
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bayern München U19 win
Ingolstadt U19 win
36.5%
Draw
19.4%
Bayern München U19 winPick
44.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes69.7%
No30.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.8%
Under 2.522.2%

How much we know

Ingolstadt U19 history44 matches
Bayern München U19 history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bayern München U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ingolstadt U19 are rated 57 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,632 against 1,575. On rating alone Ingolstadt U19 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Ingolstadt U19 score more

    2.82 goals a game over 44 matches for Ingolstadt U19, against 2.43 over 49 for Bayern München U19.

  • Ingolstadt U19 concede fewer

    Ingolstadt U19 concede 1.50 a game, Bayern München U19 1.69.

  • Ingolstadt U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    91% of Ingolstadt U19 matches, against 82% for Bayern München U19. The model puts this match at 78% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ingolstadt U19
Bayern München U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1631.5
ELO
1574.5
44
ELO · Matches
49
1631.5
Current Team ELO
1574.5
1574.5
Current Opponent ELO
1631.5
56.99
Current ELO Difference
-56.99
0.58
Expected score
0.42
44
History Matches
49
0.14
Residual Mean
0.08
59.80
Overperformance
55.46
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.40
3.00
Goals for per game
3.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.70
PPG
2.00
2.80
Goals for per game
2.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
90.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
49
2.16
PPG
1.76
70.5%
Win rate
53.1%
4.5%
Draw rate
16.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
30.6%
97.7%
Over 1.5 rate
91.8%
90.9%
Over 2.5 rate
81.6%
65.9%
Over 3.5 rate
67.3%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
24
2.48
PPG
1.38
81.0%
Win rate
41.7%
4.8%
Draw rate
12.5%
14.3%
Loss rate
45.8%
95.2%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
79.2%
61.9%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
21
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.82
Goals for per game
2.43
97.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
77.3%
BTTS rate
69.4%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.04
100.0%
Scoring rate
79.2%
76.2%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
44
History Matches
49
2.82
Goals Mean
2.43
1.74
Goals Std
1.48
97.7%
Scored 1+ rate
85.7%
77.3%
Scored 2+ rate
77.6%
47.7%
Scored 3+ rate
49.0%
3.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.69
79.5%
Conceding rate
83.7%
1.19
Goals against per game
1.75
76.2%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
44
History Matches
49
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.10
Conceded Std
1.26
45.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.0%
22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.5%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
2.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
2.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
49
0.67
Result entropy
0.91
2.41
Goal Difference Std
2.19
33.21
Stability score
9.47
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
49
23
Lead Matches
22
95.7%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.79
11
Trailing Matches
14
36.4%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
27.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
1.27
First Half Goals For Mean
1.18
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
1.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.24
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
15
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
27
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
2.25
66.7%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.70
3
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.25
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.25
Portability PPG Range
1.58
84.29
Portability Score
45.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO56.99
PPG0.40
GF0.39
GA-0.19
PPG-0.25
PPG1.10
PPG0.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate7.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.39
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate12.0%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.96
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate4.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.24
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score23.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate22.9%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate7.8%
Trailing Win Rate13.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.25
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.50
Portability PPG Range-1.33
Portability Score38.74
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.61
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO56.99
Current Opponent ELO-56.99
Current ELO Difference114.0
Expected score0.16
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ingolstadt U19

L
Ingolstadt U191–3Stuttgart U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Stuttgart U19 43% · hit
L
Jahn Regensburg U192–0Ingolstadt U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Ingolstadt U19 54% · missed
L
Bayern München U194–2Ingolstadt U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Ingolstadt U19 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bayern München U19

L
Atlético Madrid U194–1Bayern München U193 Nov · away
Pick: Bayern München U19 58% · missed
W
Stuttgart U191–3Bayern München U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Stuttgart U19 43% · missed
W
Bayern München U198–1SGV Freiberg Fussball U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern München U19 80% · hit
D
Bayern München U193–3Arsenal U1921 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern München U19 72% · missed
L
Unterhaching U193–2Bayern München U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern München U19 76% · missed

About this match

Ingolstadt U19 and Bayern München U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ingolstadt U19 win 36.5%, draw 19.4%, Bayern München U19 win 44.1%. The pick is Bayern München U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.8%. Both teams to score: 69.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.