ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Karlsruher SC U19 vs Hoffenheim U19

Karlsruher SC U19 Home · Elo 1,502
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hoffenheim U19 Away · Elo 1,618
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hoffenheim U19 win
Karlsruher SC U19 win
19.3%
Draw
18.3%
Hoffenheim U19 winPick
62.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.6%
No37.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.7%
Under 2.528.3%

How much we know

Karlsruher SC U19 history41 matches
Hoffenheim U19 history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 0 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 09:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Hoffenheim U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hoffenheim U19 are rated 116 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,502. On rating alone Hoffenheim U19 would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Hoffenheim U19 score far more

    1.71 goals a game over 41 matches for Karlsruher SC U19, against 2.82 over 45 for Hoffenheim U19.

  • Defences are close

    Karlsruher SC U19 concede 1.61 a game, Hoffenheim U19 1.78.

  • Hoffenheim U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Karlsruher SC U19 matches, against 80% for Hoffenheim U19. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Karlsruher SC U19
Hoffenheim U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.0
ELO
1618.2
41
ELO · Matches
45
1502.0
Current Team ELO
1618.2
1618.2
Current Opponent ELO
1502.0
-116.2
Current ELO Difference
116.2
0.34
Expected score
0.66
41
History Matches
45
0.01
Residual Mean
0.14
50.59
Overperformance
59.56
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
5.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.50
1.40
Goals for per game
3.90
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.90
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.43
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.53
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.16
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
45
1.49
PPG
1.82
43.9%
Win rate
55.6%
17.1%
Draw rate
15.6%
39.0%
Loss rate
28.9%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
95.6%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
43.9%
Over 3.5 rate
57.8%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
21
2.00
PPG
1.76
59.1%
Win rate
52.4%
22.7%
Draw rate
19.0%
18.2%
Loss rate
28.6%
95.5%
Over 1.5 rate
95.2%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.32
22
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
2.82
78.0%
Scoring rate
93.3%
56.1%
BTTS rate
73.3%
2.41
Goals for per game
2.95
95.5%
Scoring rate
95.2%
68.2%
BTTS rate
76.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
5.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
41
History Matches
45
1.71
Goals Mean
2.82
1.31
Goals Std
2.17
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
93.3%
53.7%
Scored 2+ rate
71.1%
26.8%
Scored 3+ rate
42.2%
2.41
Venue Goals Mean
2.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.78
75.6%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.36
Goals against per game
2.14
72.7%
Conceding rate
81.0%
2.75
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
41
History Matches
45
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.78
1.51
Conceded Std
1.74
46.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.2%
17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.7%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
2.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
4.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
4.8%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
45
0.94
Result entropy
0.89
2.12
Goal Difference Std
3.13
6.21
Stability score
11.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
45
15
Lead Matches
23
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.86
13
Trailing Matches
10
23.1%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
1.38
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.44
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.02
Rest days
76.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.78
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.85
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
2.25
25.0%
Win rate
75.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
3.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
4.44
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.75
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.71
1.09
Portability PPG Range
1.55
51.10
Portability Score
41.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-116.2
PPG-0.33
GF-1.11
GA-0.17
PPG-1.25
PPG0.24
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate15.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-1.11
Goals Std-0.86
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.31
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Conceded 2+ rate4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.57
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-1.01
Stability score-5.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate17.4%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate13.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-5.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.46
Portability Score9.74
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO-116.2
Current Opponent ELO116.2
Current ELO Difference-232.3
Expected score-0.32
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Karlsruher SC U19

L
Freiburg U194–1Karlsruher SC U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Freiburg U19 65% · hit
D
Augsburg U190–0Karlsruher SC U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Augsburg U19 60% · missed
D
Karlsruher SC U192–2Heidenheim U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Heidenheim U19 52% · missed
W
BAK 07 U191–2Karlsruher SC U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Karlsruher SC U19 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hoffenheim U19

W
Hoffenheim U199–0Sandhausen U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Hoffenheim U19 80% · hit
W
Akademija Pandev U190–3Hoffenheim U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Hoffenheim U19 40% · hit
W
Hoffenheim U197–1Stuttgarter K'rs U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Hoffenheim U19 86% · hit
D
Ulm U191–1Hoffenheim U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Hoffenheim U19 75% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Karlsruher SC U19 and Hoffenheim U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 09:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Karlsruher SC U19 win 19.3%, draw 18.3%, Hoffenheim U19 win 62.4%. The pick is Hoffenheim U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.7%. Both teams to score: 62.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.