ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Nürnberg U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 Home · Elo 1,453
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nürnberg U19 Away · Elo 1,520
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nürnberg U19 win
Dynamo Dresden U19 win
39.1%
Draw
16.3%
Nürnberg U19 winPick
44.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes70.2%
No29.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.580.2%
Under 2.519.8%

How much we know

Dynamo Dresden U19 history45 matches
Nürnberg U19 history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Nürnberg U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nürnberg U19 are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,520 against 1,453. On rating alone Nürnberg U19 would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.16 goals a game over 45 matches for Dynamo Dresden U19, against 2.28 over 40 for Nürnberg U19.

  • Nürnberg U19 concede fewer

    Dynamo Dresden U19 concede 2.22 a game, Nürnberg U19 1.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    82% of Dynamo Dresden U19 matches, against 80% for Nürnberg U19. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dynamo Dresden U19
Nürnberg U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1453.2
ELO
1519.8
45
ELO · Matches
40
1453.2
Current Team ELO
1519.8
1519.8
Current Opponent ELO
1453.2
-66.60
Current ELO Difference
66.60
0.41
Expected score
0.59
45
History Matches
40
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
46.51
Overperformance
51.55
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.60
3.20
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.30
Goals against per game
3.10
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.10
1.68
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.17
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
40
1.33
PPG
1.63
40.0%
Win rate
47.5%
13.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
46.7%
Loss rate
32.5%
91.1%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
82.2%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
67.5%
2.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
20
1.65
PPG
1.70
52.2%
Win rate
50.0%
8.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
39.1%
Loss rate
30.0%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
87.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
73.9%
Over 3.5 rate
70.0%
2.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.67
23
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.16
Goals for per game
2.28
84.4%
Scoring rate
92.5%
71.1%
BTTS rate
67.5%
2.83
Goals for per game
2.30
91.3%
Scoring rate
95.0%
73.9%
BTTS rate
70.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.67
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
45
History Matches
40
2.16
Goals Mean
2.28
1.71
Goals Std
1.52
84.4%
Scored 1+ rate
92.5%
55.6%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
42.2%
Scored 3+ rate
42.5%
2.83
Venue Goals Mean
2.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.22
Goals against per game
1.93
82.2%
Conceding rate
72.5%
2.04
Goals against per game
1.90
82.6%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
45
History Matches
40
2.22
Conceded Mean
1.93
1.80
Conceded Std
1.65
57.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.0%
37.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.0%
2.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.5%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.5%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.0%
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
40
0.90
Result entropy
0.95
2.82
Goal Difference Std
2.39
9.81
Stability score
5.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
40
15
Lead Matches
13
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.95
19
Trailing Matches
13
10.5%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
1.16
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.40
1.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
0.75
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.30
4
Current Competition Matches
3
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.00
43.89
Portability Score
54.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-66.60
PPG-0.29
GF-0.12
GA0.30
PPG-0.25
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate3.7%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.30
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score4.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.10
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.36
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range0.50
Portability Score-11.03
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO-66.60
Current Opponent ELO66.60
Current ELO Difference-133.2
Expected score-0.19
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dynamo Dresden U19

L
Eintracht Frankf U193–1Dynamo Dresden U191 Nov · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankf U19 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nürnberg U19

W
Nürnberg U194–1Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Nürnberg U19 80% · hit
D
Eintracht Frankf U192–2Nürnberg U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Frankf U19 68% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 and Nürnberg U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Dynamo Dresden U19 win 39.1%, draw 16.3%, Nürnberg U19 win 44.5%. The pick is Nürnberg U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 80.2%. Both teams to score: 70.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.